Most of my friends are astonished at the
capabilities of my modem. Downloading MP3's take seconds, my
collection is huge.
Streaming video looks excellent, full
motion, no choppy stop action video here. Flash and
Shockwave websites make me drool.
There are only 750,000
of us right now. @Home has 500,000 and RoadRunner
has the rest. Apparently the government is watching
us closely from what I have read. So much for
privacy eh? It is kinda cool to be priveledged enough to
have it this early in the game. Some areas will never
get broadband at all. Don't be fooled though. It is
not always so speedy. If a web site is extremely
popular... like HotMail, at peak times things get
Also, as the subscriber base expands, that will also
create more drag of the bandwidth, so I am told. But for
now, I just zip thru cyberspace like no tommorrow.
any wireless/satellite link development for AOL
will not only be good, it will be
revolutionary...iridium is weak now but in years to come it will be a
great backup for globalstar; all globalstar and iridium
message boards have been extremely busy and interest is
very high no matter how much they owe....the
integrated globalstar and iridium message board networks can
be found through links on OSS
message activity has been phenomenal and this is a big
plus for not just AOL but all the internet stocks and
NASDAQ as well....
weaknes in AOL came from foreign interest
pullout..., not from some complicated earnings estimates and
reports..., and was a local European phenomenon linked to a
weak euro....AOL continues to be strong in US and
showed great strength last week in market bloodbath...,
turnaround for AOL and NASDAQ will show in volume, not in
stale earnings reports, old news already....projections
do not apply when market is where it should
see The-Adviser .com for full research brief
After digesting the latest quarterly and fiscal year
America Online, our analysts were
stunned by the sudden
slow down in America Online's
growth. The recent quarter to
quarter growth (Q4 to
Q3) rate of 4% was the Company's
March 1997 when AOL was troubled with access
problems and bad press. Prior to that, the numbers were
higher. In fact, in Q3 1999, quarter to quarter
growth (Q3 to Q2)
rates approximated 12%. During the
same period in the last
two years, we estimate
seasonal growth rates of at least 7%. If
growth rate continues in the year 2000, we estimate
that AOL's annual growth rate will decline from 34% to
all before consideration of AOL's free
pricing model in Europe
and possible price cuts in
the US access market. This has
implications for the stock.
Assuming AOL is impacted
by a 25% reduction in pricing - either
lower US pricing or growth in free services in Europe,
financial results look substantially different.
We estimate that
recurring EBITDA (before
charges, mergers, write-offs, etc.) would
21% of revenues to 12%. A 50% impact to pricing -
would result in negative recurring EBITDA.
What would the pricing of AOL's stock be? Let's take a
Yahoo! for some guidance.
Everybody knows that Yahoo! earns no annuity type
Everybody knows that Yahoo! has
exploding e-commerce and
Everybody knows that Yahoo, whose stock has fallen from
high of $244 to $136 has a market capitalization
of $27 billion.
This compares to AOL's market
capitalization of $104 billion.
In a market moving
towards free Internet access does AOL deserve
price premium to Yahoo!. If parity was reached, AOL's
price would have to decline to about $29 to
achieve a market
capitalization in Yahoo's ballpark.
We could be aggressive and say
that Yahoo is
undervalued and should have a market capitalization of
$50 billion. This would result in a stock price of
$50 for AOL.
Impossible you say. Ask Steve
Case. He could have sold at $175
instead of $97. We
think he knows something. Now you do too.
see full article at the-adviser .com