Bernank says QE to continue into June. IMO, cheap money is the only reason for this market.
I would say "short" in mid-June, but any incipient collapse in averages might provoke another round of QE. The big boys (not a suscriber to conspiracy theory, just going on politics and current events) will get the Fed to support their efforts to prop the market. Or vice-versa...
...after they have made a short term killing playing the downside.
Unfortunately, too many games played in the open for us newly minted cynics to believe that the markets aren't periodically played for the benefit of the heavy donors. The trick is to guess which direction they want to take it, then go along for the ride.
Wish I knew when support was being yanked, when props were being reinstituted. I too, could make a killing playing the indices.
The key is housing. Until home prices stabilize, and start rising, the Fed will continue to pump up the money supply. Obama's fiscal irresponsibility further insures an expanding money supply, as the Fed and Treas will continue to monetize the new debt.
Unless and until home prices exceed the value of mortgage debt, the banks will remain insolvent. The banks are only solvent because they never implemented "mark to market" accounting, and they carry fictional values on their books.
The rise in the stock market since the bottom, in inflation-adjusted dollars, is much smaller than it appears.
Common stocks of companies with pricing power are still the best and most liquid hedge against inflation. Some companies showing good pricing power currently include: XOM, PG, DEO.
I have lightened up considerable recently (I never go on vacation on margin). Better to be lucky, than good.