I feel like it's a rerun of last years GS downgrade of INFA, sort of. Once again GS appears not understand that this is not a one size fits all shoe sale. The products frequently differ and don't fill the same holes. I'll repeat what I wrote then about Informatica which was a key reason for their fantastic earnings. They are the glue holding together many productions systems. They aren't going away because companies have an aversion to spending large sums of money to rewrite software, with no additional benefits, that is currently working. They always have a wish list and use their funds on those items. If anything changes this years, it will be the strengthening of their resolve to leave the Informaica part alone and pay the leasing fees which are small in comparison to redesign and rewrite costs. I'll point back to this writing when each of the next 3 fantastic earnings are released.
GS is probably right on capital spending slowing in the first half of the year. What they aren't taking into account is that the smaller s/w companies that will be even more attractive for takeovers. Ellison and Oracle, and other companies, are in great shape financially and can wait for the stock pricing of companies to continue to fall and then offer a premium of 33% or so.
Informatica is fairly priced at its current PE trailing and forward.levels. If it continues to drop, the chances of an offer are going up. I would expect an offer between $20 and $21 in Dec.