Yeah I'm still here, back near fully loaded again in the stock. So much #$%$ posted on this board, haven't bothered wading through all the garbage. Everyone to their own, but IMO people are dreaming if they expect INVN to get all the Apple business. The price action here and on STM tells us the big boys don't expect ANY Apple business this year. Of course they could be wrong, or INVN could get some Apple business in a new functional area, OIS for example, or in a new product that is under raps. So stay tuned.
Still I don't think its critical to have Apple short term as there are other ways to grow revenue/EPS. Many lower/middle range smartphone don't contain a gyro, many leading edge smartphones come in a variety of regional configurations that INVN didn't win, plus of course OIS.
Stay tuned for the HTC One teardown as it contains a 2-axis OIS gyro, might not a big volume seller but still would be a good trend setter if INVN wins that.
I'm not so worried about getting the Apple business as I am about losing some of the Samsung business. It seems Samsung is on a tear right now and I don't want to lose out on any of that. I'm long INVN probably more than I want to be, but am hoping for a big payout. And remember this snippet pulled from the New America in IBD:
InvenSense is also in the process of significantly expanding its capacity. The company expects to more than double its capacity from 200 million units in 2012 to 400 million to 500 million units by the end of 2013. This is based on various design wins in the market, says Abdi. However, analysts speculate that the main design win could be Apple (AAPL).
"They have most large phone and tablet companies except for Apple," said Gus Richard, senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray. "And I would note that a large new customer has requested that they double the capacity. They are increasing their internal test capacity quite substantially. So it's one thing to ask a potential vendor to be ready to increase output significantly. It's quite another to go out and spend capital and buy and build test systems to be ready for that volume."
I don't believe INVN not getting the Apple contract based solely on price action with INVN and STM is a valid reason. Technical data, or in this case, price and volume data is limited in scope and can be used in certain circumstances but not in the manner you've mentioned. Furthermore Apple is not a 10% customer of STM per revenues as of the most recent 20-F filings (although the new 20-F is scheduled for this month). As a matter of fact, Nokia is the only customer 10% or larger customer going back 3 years and it seems there are at least 20 customers mentioned along with Apple they consider major. This means they are well diversified and an Apple contract loss would not have a material impact (on their revs per percentage) as it would have for an INVN Apple contract win. Hence any correlation derived from STM's price/volume action could not be perceived as any future Apple contract win or loss, in my humblest opinion-research.