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InvenSense, Inc. Message Board

  • de_la_mark de_la_mark Mar 20, 2013 4:20 PM Flag

    What is driving INVN down?

    I have read through the postings and searched across other sights today all in a search for some indication of what is driving the stock down today. Can someone please provide a solid explanation?

    The only thing I can guess, and it is a guess, that somehow news that INVN is not in the Galaxy S4 has reached institutional investors and they are now exiting the stock.

    Sentiment: Buy

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    • There are at least 7 variants of the S4 that have received bluetooth certification, so too many for them to really know, I doubt its that. More likely its just general lack of news and expectation they haven't won a certain slot. Which in turn causes all the momo/ta guys to bail. Wii U has been a disappointment too.

    • Insider sales of shares. Remember 10b-5 sales can be canceled.

    • In my opinion, Apple news is driving INVN. As Gary_Lee correctly observed, Tim's Cook nothing speech at Goldman and the hype leading up to it drove this stock to 15+ and back. Match up the dates for confirmation. See article entitled "iPhone 5S, 5th-Gen iPad Could See Summer Release: Report" for today's movement. I'm fine with the news because late June isn't that far away, but I gather some were disappointed that this confirmed the delay in the iphone from June to August release and that this may have been later than the ipad was thought to be released. That being said, in my opinion, and I believe I gained this opinion from IBD, only volume days of 1.5x average volume are relevant. (Institutions move in volume.) Today was not such a day so it is meaningless. (When we fell from 15.96 recently, it was such a day. When the Blackberry Z10 teardown occurred in a blog, it was such a day and our only recent good high volume day.)

      I believe that INVN's rise is going to happen suddenly and dramatically when confirmation occurs on its inclusion in Apple. I don't believe that we will necessarily have to wait for a teardown, because I think one of the next couple earnings calls may announce future estimates that are significantly higher as a result of the Apple win.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Doing my due diligence and there is nothing that stands out. The only thing I can think of is institutional selling due to the ST suit and shorts brought the price even lower. If you are already long, you know more than me. It's prob at the point where you just gotta call Bull Sh8t and take a stand. I would love to hear a shorts take, but it'll probably be useless info.

      Disclosure: I put in an order late today but wasn't filled, so I don't own any shares.

    • de_la_mark, "driving the stock down TODAY" ... just today is your question? I think this one is a little easier to answer ... I *could be wrong* on this one but the most logical is the short term swing trading ... around 12:24 and 1:51 (this one breaking invn) there were a couple big block shorts/selling causing it to break its near term support. Looking at the historical chart, this is INVN's logical support and at times resistance. So breaking these levels is crucial for short specialists. It's just a matter of time before somebody with a good sized account takes a shot at the 11 mark ... that's just how it goes in the short-term. Trying to crack INVN here or as it rides up to the a major moving average or some sorta overhead supply is how these guys do it. There's nothing fundamentally different from a couple months ago until now. Maybe the second lawsuit from STM a couple weeks back could be considered *new* information but everything else is pretty much the same. Much speculation going on here ... INVN is movable so it gets tossed around like a rag doll ... that's unfortunately how it goes short-term. Good luck to you.

      • 1 Reply to gary_lee27
      • Gary, thank you for at least a reasonable explanation. I am not a trader and do not focus on the short term. However, attempting to be rational about the move today and even the last couple of weeks, I am hard pressed to believe that there is not some fundamental bad news out there that is driving the stock down. If I was a short and I saw a potential inflection point ahead, like the possibility of the chip going into the next generation of the Galaxy or even the potential of it being more widely adopted paired with the expansion in production announced earlier by INVN, I would be hard pressed to want to have exposure in a short position. I will be honest here, I am starting to get cold feet on this stock although I just added to my position just yesterday.

14.09+0.11(+0.79%)Jun 2 4:03 PMEDT