Word is that a recent visitor to Washington D.C.
was more impressed with Cubic's AFC system running
there than with the "State of the Union" address -
albeit with the mention of increased US defence
spending... actually, I hadn't heard about that
While you Americans busily rush up to Saddam shouting
"I am Athos, who wants it first!", Cubic's erstwhile
UTS engineers are busily rushing about underground
with the retrofits and new gate installations... Nice
news on the little AFC installation in Puerto Rico;
perhaps San Diego would be merciful enough to pull some
of the lads out of the Central line tunnels and into
the sunlight for a change.
Now... given Cubic's
not adequate results over the past 12 months and the
recent transatlantic crossing of a couple of quite
senior executives (Allahu Akbar!), it would be a happy
coincidence if there had been a long-anticipated massive
contract signed late last year with a January commencement
date and a handily shaped revenue amortization curve
so that we could say "Right up lads! That's where we
come lads, that's where we're gonna go!" And the
widgies and the women - they're all gonna go "WOOOOO!".
Gates fell over in London.
Not good news
for the customer.
This is probably why the
price fell so much last week.
There was a staple
missing from the London Underground Traffic Circular last
week - proving that we all fuck up sometimes.
will buy more at this price.
I've been listening. Although, I'll admit it has
been difficult. Technically this stock sucks. I hate
the pain of holding a losing positions because I like
the stock fundamentally. I'm afraid we're going to
have to wait awhile for this one unless they revise
their name to Cubic.com.
I must admit, like you, I am bemused by the
market, but I bought a little more.
This price is
too good to refuse.
Noticed somebody was
trying to sell 10,000 at 19 in early trading - that
wasn't you was it?
Thank you very much for the reference.
am gratified to learn that the Babylonians were
pondering the heavens a long time before we ever thought
about pondering Wall Street!!!
I will locate
Capricornus, certainly, when the conditions are favourable - I
have a small telescope and must admit I was awestruck
the first time I saw the moons of
Thank you again.
My guess, as promised, is that
CUB will report at least 36 cents per share for the
March quarter. This figure is based on the fact that
the PRESTIGE contract will contribute, at the very
worst, 10% of Cubic's gross revenues in the next year. I
am not in a position to be certain of the
amortization of the revenues, but usually the estimates are
adhered to with, shall we say, an optimistic viewpoint,
when considering a contract spanning several years, as
is the case for PRESTIGE.
For what it's
worth, this is my analysis; this stock is a screaming
buy at anything below $US20; here are my projections
for the next year - these numbers are based on
information which is publically available - if anyone else
would like to make a prediction, I will bet them dinner
at Mr. A's in San Diego that my numbers are
Q199 *Already reported 0.30
Q299 (March 31)
Q399 (June 30) 0.44
Q499 (September 30)
Total Fiscal 99 Earnings 1.62 - this is the number I'll
Right Ascension: 21 hours �Declination: -20
degrees �Visible between latitudes 60 and -90 degrees
�Best seen in September (at 9:00 PM)
By the way what was your racom hallucination all
So you are trying to work out CUB's earnings
projections, eh? Probably easier to find Capricorn I should
Jolly good question, we all wish the American analysts
would get off their arses and cover CUB; perhaps then
somebody would start buying the stock - I wonder if there
is no coverage because of possible sensitive defence
relationships which must be treated with great gentleness and
care - this seems like an extraordinary phenomenon and
I was just trying to... have you thought about
I really don't know - I am not the accountant, nor
shall I likely run into him at the types of
establishments I am known to frequent.
Q. What do
accountants use for contraception?
I would suggest you surf back to an earlier
observation I so graciously shared with Rarstock in which I
stated that 30 cents seemed to be a conservative
estimate for December earnings, but that we should also
expect that PRESTIGE would contribute significantly to
bring that number to between 35 and 40
The reported December earnings were indeed 30 cents,
but the announcement also stated that revenue from
PRESTIGE had not begun to accrue in the December quarter -
naturally enough, I suppose, since the commencement date of
the contract eventually wound up being January 1;
perhaps I was off-base in suggesting the recognition of
revenue being allowable on pre-commencement expenses;
like I said, I am not the accountant, and I probably
never shall be.
It has been said that the cozy
relationship between CUB and London Transport has had some
rough spots since the commencement of the contract, but
that's the same as always - customers are so bloody
annoying aren't they - what would you expect if you handed
CUB a decrepit old urban transport system and said
"Here - fix it".
How do I know what the earnings
will be? Just the same as you, I don't, but here's an
idea - let's put 100 shares down and we'll each take a
stab at the March number and loser sells at
On the other hand, I will give you my guess for
March if you tell me how to find Capricorn and we'll
forget about the wager.
to get more information. I like the revenue
growth, backlog, areas of specialization, insider buying,
etc. but since it is so underfollowed I find it
difficult to assess its earnings potential. You are
obviously quite knowledgeable about the company and I was
wondering if you would share your earnings expectations for
the quarter, the full year and beyond.
in advance for your help.
CUB is stable.......its employees are content to
stay for many years.......zable is getting up
there...however, this company he started in a garage almost 50yrs
ago....who's to say where CUB would be today without walt at
the wheel. CUB is a long term investment....an
inflation hedge....you won't lose your money, but you are
not going to make anything on it day trading.....i've
been following the stock for over 20yrs... it makes up
about 5% of my portfolio.....
John Lincoln is running the show in London; there
are no doubts as to his competence or
Old Zable may be an autocrat, but he's no
So what if the directors fall asleep at board
Look at the books.
Look at the customers.