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Cubic Corporation Message Board

  • the_mad_pom the_mad_pom Jan 24, 1999 9:29 PM Flag

    Thoughts about the troops up front...

    Word is that a recent visitor to Washington D.C.
    was more impressed with Cubic's AFC system running
    there than with the "State of the Union" address -
    albeit with the mention of increased US defence
    spending... actually, I hadn't heard about that
    part...
    While you Americans busily rush up to Saddam shouting
    "I am Athos, who wants it first!", Cubic's erstwhile
    UTS engineers are busily rushing about underground
    with the retrofits and new gate installations... Nice
    news on the little AFC installation in Puerto Rico;
    perhaps San Diego would be merciful enough to pull some
    of the lads out of the Central line tunnels and into
    the sunlight for a change.
    Now... given Cubic's
    not adequate results over the past 12 months and the
    recent transatlantic crossing of a couple of quite
    senior executives (Allahu Akbar!), it would be a happy
    coincidence if there had been a long-anticipated massive
    contract signed late last year with a January commencement
    date and a handily shaped revenue amortization curve
    so that we could say "Right up lads! That's where we
    come lads, that's where we're gonna go!" And the
    widgies and the women - they're all gonna go "WOOOOO!".

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • Gates fell over in London.

      Not good news
      for the customer.

      This is probably why the
      price fell so much last week.

      There was a staple
      missing from the London Underground Traffic Circular last
      week - proving that we all fuck up sometimes.

      I
      will buy more at this price.

    • I've been listening. Although, I'll admit it has
      been difficult. Technically this stock sucks. I hate
      the pain of holding a losing positions because I like
      the stock fundamentally. I'm afraid we're going to
      have to wait awhile for this one unless they revise
      their name to Cubic.com.

    • I must admit, like you, I am bemused by the
      market, but I bought a little more.

      This price is
      too good to refuse.

      Noticed somebody was
      trying to sell 10,000 at 19 in early trading - that
      wasn't you was it?

      Patience...

    • Thank you very much for the reference.

      I
      am gratified to learn that the Babylonians were
      pondering the heavens a long time before we ever thought
      about pondering Wall Street!!!

      I will locate
      Capricornus, certainly, when the conditions are favourable - I
      have a small telescope and must admit I was awestruck
      the first time I saw the moons of
      Jupiter.

      Thank you again.

      My guess, as promised, is that
      CUB will report at least 36 cents per share for the
      March quarter. This figure is based on the fact that
      the PRESTIGE contract will contribute, at the very
      worst, 10% of Cubic's gross revenues in the next year. I
      am not in a position to be certain of the
      amortization of the revenues, but usually the estimates are
      adhered to with, shall we say, an optimistic viewpoint,
      when considering a contract spanning several years, as
      is the case for PRESTIGE.

      For what it's
      worth, this is my analysis; this stock is a screaming
      buy at anything below $US20; here are my projections
      for the next year - these numbers are based on
      information which is publically available - if anyone else
      would like to make a prediction, I will bet them dinner
      at Mr. A's in San Diego that my numbers are
      closer!

      Q199 *Already reported 0.30
      Q299 (March 31)
      0.38
      Q399 (June 30) 0.44
      Q499 (September 30)
      0.50
      Total Fiscal 99 Earnings 1.62 - this is the number I'll
      bet on!

      Any takers?

    • Enter "Capricornus" in the Yahoo search engine and go to the seventh listing which is the one I tried to give you.

      Happy stargazing.

    • Right Ascension: 21 hours �Declination: -20
      degrees �Visible between latitudes 60 and -90 degrees
      �Best seen in September (at 9:00 PM)

      For
      further
      information

      http://www.astro.wisc.edu/~dolan/constellations/constellations/capricornus.html

      By the way what was your racom hallucination all
      about?

    • So you are trying to work out CUB's earnings
      projections, eh? Probably easier to find Capricorn I should
      think.

      Jolly good question, we all wish the American analysts
      would get off their arses and cover CUB; perhaps then
      somebody would start buying the stock - I wonder if there
      is no coverage because of possible sensitive defence
      relationships which must be treated with great gentleness and
      care - this seems like an extraordinary phenomenon and
      I was just trying to... have you thought about
      that?

      I really don't know - I am not the accountant, nor
      shall I likely run into him at the types of
      establishments I am known to frequent.

      Q. What do
      accountants use for contraception?

      A. Their
      personalities.

      I would suggest you surf back to an earlier
      observation I so graciously shared with Rarstock in which I
      stated that 30 cents seemed to be a conservative
      estimate for December earnings, but that we should also
      expect that PRESTIGE would contribute significantly to
      bring that number to between 35 and 40
      cents.

      The reported December earnings were indeed 30 cents,
      but the announcement also stated that revenue from
      PRESTIGE had not begun to accrue in the December quarter -
      naturally enough, I suppose, since the commencement date of
      the contract eventually wound up being January 1;
      perhaps I was off-base in suggesting the recognition of
      revenue being allowable on pre-commencement expenses;
      like I said, I am not the accountant, and I probably
      never shall be.

      It has been said that the cozy
      relationship between CUB and London Transport has had some
      rough spots since the commencement of the contract, but
      that's the same as always - customers are so bloody
      annoying aren't they - what would you expect if you handed
      CUB a decrepit old urban transport system and said
      "Here - fix it".

      How do I know what the earnings
      will be? Just the same as you, I don't, but here's an
      idea - let's put 100 shares down and we'll each take a
      stab at the March number and loser sells at
      18?

      On the other hand, I will give you my guess for
      March if you tell me how to find Capricorn and we'll
      forget about the wager.

    • to get more information. I like the revenue
      growth, backlog, areas of specialization, insider buying,
      etc. but since it is so underfollowed I find it
      difficult to assess its earnings potential. You are
      obviously quite knowledgeable about the company and I was
      wondering if you would share your earnings expectations for
      the quarter, the full year and beyond.

      Thanks
      in advance for your help.

    • CUB is stable.......its employees are content to
      stay for many years.......zable is getting up
      there...however, this company he started in a garage almost 50yrs
      ago....who's to say where CUB would be today without walt at
      the wheel. CUB is a long term investment....an
      inflation hedge....you won't lose your money, but you are
      not going to make anything on it day trading.....i've
      been following the stock for over 20yrs... it makes up
      about 5% of my portfolio.....

      cheers


      cowpoke

    • John Lincoln is running the show in London; there
      are no doubts as to his competence or
      longevity.

      Old Zable may be an autocrat, but he's no
      fool.

      So what if the directors fall asleep at board
      meetings!

      Look at the books.

      Look at the customers.

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CUB
40.16+0.55(+1.39%)Jun 30 4:02 PMEDT