I recall someone (not sure if it was a widgie or a woman) telling me that Cubic's second quarter results would be made public sometime during the second week of May. I'm sure a 'phone call to San Diego would confirm... go on and spend a dime for us...
Also, please let us know your guess for the Q2 number.
I am the only one in the pool so far at 0.38... it's my understanding that the closest Yahoo guess will win a secondhand Klix machine...
...45c for Q2, 1.50 for 99, and 1.90 for 00. Longer term, they see 3 bucks in 02-04, with a price between 50 and 35. But goodness help you, Lucien Virgile is the analyst here, and he/she (not sure) has become one of those names in VL that I've learned to distrust.
You know, I can see the orders as well as anyone, but at least according to the VL array of data going back to 1983 this company hasn't been too impressive. After all, eps in 83 was 1.46, in 99 estimated at 1.50. The stock price has basically missed the entire bull market since 1987 (and maybe before that - don't have the detail).
Return on equity sucks. Return on assets suck. There's no real dividend growth to speak of. Operating and net margins have been pitiful. Apparently the same management team is in place (you tell me).
Bottom line: why should I believe that the company will translate these orders into any real profitability? History seems to suggest a healthy lack of disrespect here.
So tell me, why should I change my mind? I'm an institutional investor of sorts (a flea-spot one), and the orders DO have me intrigued, but....
...and forgive me for my UNsofistiCAtion --> what is klix?
Let me address as many of your points as I am able:
If 0.45 is the Q2 number, the '99 total will be much higher than 1.50 - this should be obvious, since the new contracts will begin accruing during '99; most of these contracts run several years; whilst I will grant that the record of cost over-runs is abysmal, any variance on the projections for the recent orders are unlikely to be recognized until at least next year - so how could they report 0.30, 0.45 and then only 0.75 for the remaining 6 months without some kind of extraordinary charge? I think 0.45 is high, but I'll be chuffed if they hit it - suffice to say I am in agreement with your assessment of the worth of Mr/Ms Virgile's analyses.
As far as the management is concerned, you should be aware that the main mission of the London office (at least since Cubic bought out Westinghouse) has been to appease the London Transport Authorities enough to ensure that Cubic was awarded the entire transport systems contract once the system was put on the privatization block by the British Government. Doing business in the world of secret handshakes and the old school tie can be a tricky business, something Americans often do not appreciate. The London office was crawling with Americans until the PRESTIGE contract was secured last year. Now there is an Englishman back in charge, thank God!
I believe Cubic expects Automated Revenue Collection will offer the greatest potential for sustained growth over the coming decade, although if NATO keeps blowing things up, who knows?
As far as Klix is concerned, I posted a link back in message #35 or thereabouts.
Do be a sport then, and give us your guess for the Q2 EPS.