It is becoming common knowledge to insiders that both ALU and Ericsson GPON solutions are non-deployable. Watch for AT&T to dump FTTP in favor of FTTN and buy a satelite video solution to combine with 24mb/s data FTTN solution.
Re. AT&T to dump FTTP in favor of FTTN and buy a satelite video solution to combine with 24mb/s data FTTN solution.
I agree with the exception of FTTN/FTTP. It's the other way around. AT&T is deploying Fiber To The Node (FTTN) and will eventually have to bring fiber into the premise (FTTP), just as Verizon is doing now. HD TV, IPTV, Movies on Demand etc. requires significant bandwidth and as more customers come on line FTTN is limited in particular with quality of service issues (QOS).
Essentially FTTN is a stop gap measure because deployment costs are considerably less than FTTP. Same old "pay me now or pay me later" scenario. However bandwidth demand is increasing especially with home networking multiple devices and out pacing the quality of service and speed that FTTN can provide.
Same is true of Cable MSO's who will in combination with their new DOCIS3 standard have to run Hybrid Fiber Coax Cable (HFC)into the home at some point to provide QOS. This is why Verizon bit the bullet on OPEX upfront making a $23B bet by 2010.
Unfortunately & IMO, TLAB focused more on FTTN based on AT&T and deployment OPEX issues, underestimating Tier 2 & 3 customers re-thinking and deploying FTTP instead of FTTN.
During the Tlab annual stockholder meeting Mr. Birck mentioned that there were other companies more sick than they and an attendee who had affiliation with Lucent in the past concurred with that analogy. Maybe this bodes well for Tlabs to get back on track and turn the tide around for them. Seems like they are positioned well with product and technology, they just need to execute and focus on driving earnings.