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Tellabs, AŞ Message Board

  • tlabslong tlabslong Nov 16, 2012 2:14 PM Flag

    Clearly the largest pressure on TLAB's PPS for the past 2 quarters

    was Jannus exiting the stock. They were the largest holder in the begining of the year and sold out their remaining +9M shares in Q3. It appears that those shares were absorbed by current holders of the stock. Apparently Jannus made a decsion over 6 months ago to exit their entire position. Apparently other long time investors who already know TLABs well have decided to add to their positions and take advantage of the price drops created by Jannus' exit in the stock.

    I am encouraged to see long time holder Third Avenue buy almost 8M shares to increase their position to over 10% with 30.8M shares.

    I am encouraged to see Dialectic Capital added over 2M shares. Dialected started nibbling on shares at much higher prices as a value play. They like TLABs at $6 even more at $4 and continue buying in the $3s.

    I am most encouraged to see ManuLife Asset Managment increase their position over 100% and add over 6M shares to now be the sixth largest holder of TLAB with alomst 12M shares!

    I have a feeling that the Q4 guidance at $240 to $260M may have been purposely placed conservatively low in order to readily beat.those numbers. CFO said at the last conference that Q4 will again be cash flow positive. Based upon Opex numbers($107M and 40% margins) and other parameters we know, it looks to me as they can only get cash flow positive by beating on the top line. Wall Street is so fixated on top line numbers and becasue of the current guidance the stock is now under $3. IMO when they beat the revenue guidance and once again show positve cash flow, the stock will be back up into the $3s and of Q1 guidance is positive then the PPS can easily trade back up near $4.