After research into the timing of Ellis downgrade of SNDK and FLSH, I have come to the conclusion that the market already knew about Ellis' downgrade before June 28, 2005. Yet SNDK continued the upward trend.
Comments from Europe ..."The M-Systems share has fallen back to $20. I (Cohen)reiterate that, in my opinion, with all due caution, the company will not issue a profit warning. I can cite many other reasons for the drop in the share: ..... repeated remarks by Smith Barney analyst Craig Ellis about weak sales of memory cards in retail chains (M-Systems�s products aren�t sold there, but Ellis thinks they are) and lower prices for NAND chips (which is true, but Ellis is wrong about its effect on M-Systems)...........Ellis says that SanDisk�s sales are weak. According to what I saw in Europe, the opposite is true, and what I saw was only the cameras market, which is considered saturated, with slow growth. I assume that SanDisk�s other sectors, such as memory cards for wireless telephones and universal serial bus (USB), are even stronger...."
All these comments were made on Jun 28, 2005 http://www.globes.co.il/serveen/globes/DocView.asp?did=928108&fid=1176 SNDK's continued uptrend proved that the market has chosen to ignore Ellis this time. You can rationalized all you want how credible Ellis is but the market has the final say and that is all that matters. I have decided to hold thru ER. Setting stop loss is useless like raidaug said. SNDK will either gap up or down bigtime overnight after ER. If I am right, I'll be so rich.... and if I am wrong so be it..its only play money to me. There will always be another quarter. If I remember right, SNDK has never missed estimate twice in a row...and besides, never before has there been no insider sell for two months in a row (Jun & July). This downgrade by Ellis may just give SNDK a bigger pop if it beats, which Ellis said is a possibility at the end of his downgrade (just to cover his ass).
I am going to pursue my other hobbies in the next few days and see you guys after ER.