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SanDisk Corp. Message Board

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  • As_the_world_turns As_the_world_turns May 14, 2010 7:48 AM Flag

    Dan Rosengold at Investor Village

    His estimates for 2011 are $7B in revenue and $6.66 to $7 in eps

    "Then supply/demand in 2011

    Right now I'm thinking balanced supply/demand with SanDisk having 100% bit growth (full year of FAB 4 expansion,FAB5 wafer contribution in 2H 2011, TLC moving to embedded and SSD), ASP and cost reduction of 35% and OPEX increasing by 12% to 12% of total revenue. This will get us to approximately $7B in revenues and $6.6 in EPS. If SSD in tablets/notebook is very successful we may see severe allocation. Also any decrease in the very high tax rate of SanDisk (I expect this as international is getting bigger and profitable but didn't take this into account) will get the EPS closer to $7.

    What could go wrong?

    General market meltdown is the main risk (I see this as a medium risk scenario)

    For 2011: SSD doesn't take off and we are caught in an oversupply situation. (I see this as a low risk scenario)"

 
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