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SanDisk Corp. Message Board

  • jonny.smack jonny.smack Jul 7, 2010 5:13 AM Flag

    Schlomi's take from seeking alpha

    (despite the glowing remarks across the net on SNDK and the one from below - global pressure's will continue to keep SNDK treading water and it seems so today as futures are waivering - Culcuhain)

    In contrast to Marvell, the recent drop in SanDisk shares has no specific explanation that is connected to its business or to being on the verge of financial reporting, just the sharp correction that hit the entire market. In general, it is hard to complain about a fall from a record of nearly $51 two weeks ago to $42, when the share was at $5 less than two years ago. Every rise from the level of $20-- seven months ago-- and up, has been accompanied by a wave of sales as it passed each milestone price on the way up. That is how I see the latest wave of sales after it hit the $50 mark.

    On the other hand, a low P/E ratio of around 10, for SanDisk, and apparently even lower, on 2010 profit, is much better understood than that given to Apple (AAPL) or Marvell. The crisis of 2008 in the flash market is still fresh, and so is the concern of a flood of flash chips hitting the market next year, which is liable to bring again a crash in prices and profits.

    Investors want to know with certainty that demand engines for flash, most of them at Apple, will be strong enough next year as well in order to consume the additional output that will arrive from the new large facilities that will be added to the market in the middle of 2011. Primarily this refers to Toshiba's Fab 5, Micron's plant in Singapore, and Samsung's plant, apparently in Korea.

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    • You are right. The world has a grand future,however, America may not. We have our own pigs. obama,reid and pelosi and they are intent upon making America socialist and killing any profit incentive. If the dems lose control in Nov. This stock will trade above $80. If not it may still be at $45. American business are sitting on almost two trillion in cash and are afraid to spend or hire because of a lack of guidance from obamas' administration. They are afraid to hire without knowing the coming rules. The dems refuse to disclose a budget and hedge about extending Bushs' tax cuts. Don't look for any great advances prior to Nov. elections. GO SNDK.

    • Do not forget the effect of the crushed shorts!!!

    • Jon,


      The Global Chatter is wild!

      Simply Beautiful!

      Dr. Harari should be so Proud of his lifes efforts!

      Can you imagine GS ran all around the world this past weekend spreading Doom in TECH!

      More Egg in their Face!


      Its incredible that a Icon of the likes of GS has deGraded to that!

      The world has a Grand future all this and still the PIGS Iran, NKorea and Venesuela continue their stupidity!

      Currently the Global Synergies are Rising increasing the Global Dynamics setting UP a Massive Global Breakout!

      Simply Beautiful!

      Best of Luck Always!

    • JM,

      I've been watching intently - but silently.

      Momentum traders should push this up over the next few days. A new high by the end of the week would be super.

    • Jon,

      Its happening!

      Simply Beautiful!

      Best Always

    • I want to point out a gap in Schlomi's comments regarding capacity heading into 2011.

      Yes, Toshiba, Samsung and Micron are building fabs. One each. As those of use know who have been follwing demand projections, the market needs 8 fabs. So the likelyhood of a stable supply/demand balance heading into 2H11 still looks to be weighted towards the demand side and perhaps heading into 2012 in no more new fabs are announced.


    • Well, as for the fundamental and those taking SNDK or for that matter Tech out well into 2018 we continue to forecast a rise in strength.

      While yes, at present the S&P and Bond Markets continue to weigh heavy its been more about Financial yet again but none the Less that situation will be around for many years to come so we may as well get used to it, that is the extremes in Volatility.

      While that has been said, TAIWAN and its TECH Sector is and continue then by all respects will Fly as Trade with China has indecated Hot TECH Spot rising all Global Tech with even a remote market through TAIWAN.

      All this Hoopla over China UP one day Down the next has been and continues to be Financials/Banks and Toots who have over leveraged hoping they would run and they will although China continues down playing their growth.

      Don't for one minute believe any of the Bad Press out of China as India remains the Hottest BRIC Market and we all know who SNDK has its greatest showing.

      Yes Indeed,

      These Cubbies and their Toots have been trying like the Dickens to get SNDK down to 39 hoping that they can break her and she'll retest 37 which to be quite honest if the weaker hands continue to tighten their Stop Sell Orders 39's or for that matter 38's without Toots courting SNDK she can fail to hold and test 32's

      MANIPULATION is and remains the Key at Play here nothing more.

      So, thats the bad news!

      The Good News is SNDK continues to indicate a robust Quarterly ER Release and if they can impress with a strong Gross Margin going into the TWO hottest Quarters we could Very well see


      Soon after ER Release.

      With a Trading Base Set at


      SNDK has held UP impressively.











      We forecast will be the next Rise into ER week!

      With a Breakout Test into


      But more important it seems will be what kind of Announcement will SNDK be making.

      Use Protective Hedges wisely!


      La Vita e Bella!

      Best of Luck Longers and Trader$$$$

      • 3 Replies to riskpremium1
      • WhaHooooooooooooooooooo!

        The News Today confirms


        Soon to be a reality!


        The impact this will have on the future of Technology is beyond understanding

        But, One thing is guaranteed

        TECHNOLOGIES has a Brighter Future

        As SNDK and Toshiba combined force takes the World of Technolgies in a New Direction!

        Happy Day!

        La Dolce Vita!

        Best of Luck Longers and Trader$$$$

      • Setting UPward Momentum Target Set at




        This ER Release is the very same Quarterly Earnings Dr. Harari has been Tooting the SNDK Horn over!

        It should Prove to be ever more impressive than the Q1 record!

        India Hott, China finally Heating UP again with Taiwan Rising Expectations SKorea Heading Higher Japan finding Support as export begin to rise with Demand

        EU on the Mend

        Tomorrow's Economic Release a slowdown in Unemployment claims will be a Mighty Big Plus for the Markets.

        And with Crude Inventories we do really expect much change.

        Although, the Big Day will come on Graveyard Friday

        Looking for Wholesale Inventories to remain in line ahead of Back to School!

        Current Friday Forecast Target Set at




        La Dolce Vita!

        Best of Luck Longers and Trader$$$$

      • fundamentally the stock cratering to

        39 - 10% probability

        37 - 1% probability

        32 - .1% probability.

        anything below 39 would mean market meltdown on a global scale.

        at some point even the manipulators need to tact to reset course.

60.29-0.26(-0.43%)Jul 31 4:00 PMEDT