I think Q3 and Q4 2010 global economy will improve slightly
currently eur 1,29 $ up 10% from 1,18 at the begining of June. That should help US and China (which indirectly would help US again) economy. At the begining of 2009 eur/$ was low that help Europe economy and indeed Germany and France were the first developed countries to emerge from recession in Q1 2009. At the end of 2009 eur/$ was higher, US economy showed strengh and Europe economy was slowing. June 2010 a new low Eur/$ Us economy is suffering a batch but Europe showed strong growth data. As far as finantial and sovereign debt crisis don;t get worse I think that is reasonable to expect growth strenghening in Q3 and Q4.
Anyway I think that we can asume that Sandisk production for Q3 and Q4 is already sold due to strong demand.
My estimates for 2010 are around 5 billion $ revenue and close to 5$ eps (baybe 4,8 or 4,9 but I think that it will be close to 5 $)
Then the question is 2010
from recent Sandisk earnings reports and interviews we can guess that 2011 conservative production will be up arond 70 % and cost reductions above 40%. The key data is price reductions numbers. This quarter was 15% yoy. I think it is quite reasonable to assume it will be between 15 and 30 % in 2011 depending on demand
5 billion $ (2010) * 1,70 = 8,5 billion $ - 0,3*8,5 * 6 billion $
I think that is quite reasonable and I would dare to say a little conservative estimation to assume 6 billion $ revenue in 2011 and around 6$ eps.
In order to earnings falling below 2010 results, we should assume price cuts above 40%. That is posible but I think that requires a double dip recession and certainly a profound recession in the case of Sandisk, cause we should not forget that price declines increases demand for new products like SSD. Another important issue is that it seems that Sandisk has the lowest costs in bussiness, so it might be affected as it has happened in the past, but there are lots of weaker players that should be more affected (Micron for example was presenting negative results more time than Sandisk)
Now if you want to invest buying stocks at this time, certainly Sandisk is a must buy.
I didn't realize how redundant it sounds! I didn't even notice that Wikipedia had the more commonly accepted idiom, instead of what I am used to saying. Reminds me of my reaction to my cousin in Texas when she handed me a loaf of bread and told me "Cut it in half in two."
Idiomatic usage varies in different parts of the country. I work with a population that comes almost entirely from Mexico. Their idioms vary greatly, depending on which part of the country they are from.
Wife is German. Among our German friends here we find that idioms also that vary greatly, depending on which part of Germany they are from.
Thanks for pointing out my nonstandard use of this idiom. It is not all that uncommon as this Republican senator uses the same expression. http://blogs.abcnews.com/politicalpunch/2009/07/grassley-says-colleagues-beating-a-dead-horse-to-death-on-sotomayor-wise-latina-comments.html
It's an idiom that you paraphrased and stated incorrectly. You cannot beat a dead horse to death. The idiom is that beating a dead horse is a waste of time. However,you cannot beat a dead horse to death. That is not how the saying should be presented. It should be "You are beating a dead horse". In other words you are wasting your time. I ,by the way, live in horse country near Pinehurst,N.c. and have heard the expression You are beating a dead horse many ,many times. But until now I have never heard that you are beating a dead horse to death.
It's an idiom. Maybe it's not used in your part of fhe country. I meant that further discussion of Boeing's refusal to order the parts is a waste of time as all points have already been made. Obviously I was wrong or you guys must really be bored.
Sounds more like the person trying to order the part did not Have the authority to place the order at that price.
Wonder if they found the part at a better price, those Germans are amoung some of the best managers around.
Didn't mean to unleash so much anger. Only meant to show that large corporations are pressuring their people to cut or maintain costs. Still think it's a valid point. Take what you want from it but let's not beat a dead horse to death.
Its about the JPY and Commodities mostly Agriculture going into this week keep an eye on Durable Goods and PMI
But the most important disclosure looks to be the Fed Biege Book this week.
As for Tech this Lull has been historical considering at these levels Most all Tech remains oversold as does SNDK.
I see the global export economies of Germany and Japan showing exports up, good indicators of where we are headed. On the other hand, US inventories are lean and companies are watching their budgets closely.
Last night my friend told me that a large, multinational US company called him up for two special parts. He called around the US and there were none to be found within normal supply channels. Have to order and it would be Oct delivery time. The company wanted the parts now but when my friend found them the two parts they were $400 apiece. The large corporation refused to pay $800 for them.