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ETFS Physical Palladium Message Board

  • kmcmahon38 kmcmahon38 Nov 9, 2010 1:19 PM Flag

    Realistic Price Targets for Palladium?

    I'm amazed how little convesation takes place on this message board, considering how strong palladium has been lately.

    Anyway, just wondering where you folks think Palladium prices are going? I think we will have some sort of correction in the near future, but not until the price reaches $770 and ounce (futures price).

    From there, who knows. We could retrace back to around $650, or march towards $1000. I do believe a $1000 break would be very significant.

    Additionally, I have been reading comments from top officials in Russia, China, and South America criticizing the Federal Reserve for our currency printing, and would not at all be surprised to see nations start hoarding precious metals such as Palladium. If htat happens, or even if that is discussed, prices could really skyrocket. Your thoughts?

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    • China needs a huge amount of Pd for cars as Pt is too expensive for
      catalytic converters.

      China, India, etc. are buying precious metals to hold as a reserve
      currency as they know the dollar is doomed.

      They are buying other commodities such as grains, copper, and
      aluminum to feed their growth.

    • This is basically a supply/demand thing.

      Palladium price must go up because there is a supply shortage.

      Whenever you have a supply shortage, the price must go up to the level high enough to stimulate supply, and supress demand.

      Current palladium price is NOT high enough to supress demand in any way. Industrial users will not abandon palladium at $700, and switch to use the more expensive platinum. No way. If palladium price reaches double the platinum price, they may switch away from palladium, but no way at $700-ish palladium price.

      On the supply side, 93% of the world's palladium is produced as a by-product metal, not main product. Mining companies will NOT over-produce their main product metal just to get more by-product palladium. NO WAY.

      The only party capable of increasing palladium production in response to price surge, are SWC and PAL. They supply only a small percentage of the world's palladium, and can not boost production in any significant way even if they want to. Also at current palladium price level, there is stil no incentive to increase production.

      We still have a long way to go in the palladium bull market.

    • CNBC said today this years production of Pd will be net negative, i.e., demand will outstrip production, Im assuming they mean industrial demand. This is a great commodity to be in because of the industrial uses, particularly car cat converters, with a lot of demand coming from 3rd world countries. I would use any correction to buy in, I think todays action is due to Bank of Japan surreptitious and futile support of the dollar.

 
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