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Hersha Hospitality Trust Message Board

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  • wizestman wizestman Oct 29, 2009 10:42 AM Flag

    Stock Drop

    I believe that stock price has dropped because the market is pricing in a drop in the dividend. If you look at their cash flow statement, the total cash outlay for dividend payment is about the same every quarter. So, you take that cash outlay for dividends and divide by a higher number of shares outstanding and the div per share has to drop. The Argentinian group bought a bunch of new shares and had options to buy more (which I am not sure whether they exercised or not). The value of an option declines when dividends are paid since the strike price is not adjusted for dividend payments. So, in all probability, they might have exercised those options to net the firm more cash, but also cause more shares outstanding. Whether the firm uses that extra cash to pay div is another matter altogether. My gut feel is that the div per share is going to drop to 2 cents per share, and this will cause prices to decline to around $2.00 to $2.50 per share. This is my best guess for why the stock price has come down from the #3+ range.

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