Positives: ============= (1) Expression of confidence by large insider buying in the new stock offering. (2) Stock closes above offering price - general indicator of good sentiment (3) Dividend has not been cut in last year - in fact, it was maintained even though there was extensive dilution recently.
Negatives: =========== (1) Underperform rating issued via new analyst coverage. (2) Will new stock offering eventually cause DPS to decline? Serious worry here. (3) What are they "really" going to do with funds raised in the latest offering? Will they create incremental cash flows that outpace cost of capital?
Uncertainty here needs to be addressed explicitly by the management team as soon as possible. Otherwise serious investors are going to sell (notwithstanding the positives explicated above).
That is an excellent question and thanks for a synopsis of HTs issues. I am sure they (mgmt) have another hotel purchase in mind as there is a very serious need to show some potential for growth. When your earnings are divided by a factor of three (dilution); it looks better when earnings are negative, but becomes a real anchor when they're positive. I sorely disagree that this is a good management team, but hey, I've only been around for 2 and a half years. The dilution started with Eduardo Elztain who knows a golden opportunity when he sees one. I think 12M shares at $2.50 to $3.00. The nickel dividend was maintained even though it was counter-productive to do so. There was no share buyback while this dividend was maintained. It may be that Eduardo wants to take this private. Jay Shah, IMHO, has not given shareholders any consideration whatsoever. And why should he, he doesnt own much of a stake in this company. In fact, I doubt he purchased any of his 700k shares with his own dough. My bet is that even with the much improved recovery in NYC and the east, the dilution will stink up the earnings.