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Market Vectors Junior Gold Mine Message Board

  • kbononi kbononi Feb 15, 2013 6:28 PM Flag

    long term trend in GOLD??

    Since it began trading in 2005, the gold ETF, GLD, has had three consolidations in its secular trend higher, each of which lasted around 2 1/2-3 years. The secular trend channel ascends at the rate of approximately 20%/year and can be clearly seen through the upper trendline connecting the 2006, 2008 and 2011 peaks. A parallel line connects the 2008 trough with a point slightly lower than the current price, 155.54.

    I believe we may be at or very near the end of the most recent 2 1/2 year consolidation and, if the secular trend can be trusted, a new bullish leg will begin shortly. Extrapolating the channel suggests that the target of this next push higher would be in the area of 240-270 (or gold prices of 2400-2700) towards the end of 2014.

 
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