Mon, Sep 22, 2014, 9:03 PM EDT - U.S. Markets closed


% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Jinpan International Limited Message Board

  • incognitoharry incognitoharry Jan 31, 2011 3:30 PM Flag

    Making sense of some numbers...

    Here are some numbers & stats which I dug up on JST:

    Share price performance:
    1 yr -50% vs S&P +16%
    2 yr +55% vs S&P +55%
    5 yr +125% (down from the 450% top of Jan 2010) vs S&P 0%

    5 yr EPS growth of 46%/yr vs industry avg of 13%
    5 yr cashflow growth of 21%/yr vs industry avg 16%

    PE is about 9 & dividend is 14¢/share. I know I must be missing something here, but how does one justify the PPS at current levels?

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • 5yrs is nice but what about the 1 yr results?

    • when you pick what numbers to look at and what numbers not to look at, you can always construct a picture that will perfectly align with your views and make you feel better. they call this "confirmation bias".
      i hold JST and here are the numbers I worry about:
      1) product prices going down 20%
      2) sales volumes going up only 10%, not enough to compensate for #1

      I really hope that both of these are temporary. i.e. product prices will improve soon and will continue to improve and sales volumes will start going up significantly, i.e. 30% YoY or better.

      • 2 Replies to Dr_Hangup
      • Thank you for your response. But no, I haven't been suffering from "confirmation bias" since my earlier days of investing. I paid dearly to learn that lesson...

        I'm currently doing an overview of my holdings to find justifications for keeping or dumping.

        Here are more positive facts for JST:
        - strong balance sheet
        - no debt
        - 30%+ inside ownership
        - high chinese growth industry & sector

        However, jst is operating like a co in a slow growth sector:
        - past performance no guarantee of future
        - net income growth is down by 50%+ for 2010
        - projected income growth is now 10 to 15%, translating into $11 to $15 pps
        - increasing low-cost competition cutting into margins going forward
        - high R&D spending in wind energy, hydro?

        Unfortunately, JST's #s don't bode well to be included in my portfolio. But I will give it another quarter in this year of the rabbit to prove me wrong.

      • tcracker09 Jan 31, 2011 10:40 PM Flag

        $11.40 tomorrow would be fabulous!

8.06+1.11(+15.97%)Sep 22 3:59 PMEDT

Trending Tickers

Trending Tickers features significant U.S. stocks showing the most dramatic increase in user interest in Yahoo Finance in the previous hour over historic norms. The list is limited to those equities which trade at least 100,000 shares on an average day and have a market cap of more than $300 million.