when you pick what numbers to look at and what numbers not to look at, you can always construct a picture that will perfectly align with your views and make you feel better. they call this "confirmation bias". i hold JST and here are the numbers I worry about: 1) product prices going down 20% 2) sales volumes going up only 10%, not enough to compensate for #1
I really hope that both of these are temporary. i.e. product prices will improve soon and will continue to improve and sales volumes will start going up significantly, i.e. 30% YoY or better.
Thank you for your response. But no, I haven't been suffering from "confirmation bias" since my earlier days of investing. I paid dearly to learn that lesson...
I'm currently doing an overview of my holdings to find justifications for keeping or dumping.
Here are more positive facts for JST: - strong balance sheet - no debt - 30%+ inside ownership - high chinese growth industry & sector
However, jst is operating like a co in a slow growth sector: - past performance no guarantee of future - net income growth is down by 50%+ for 2010 - projected income growth is now 10 to 15%, translating into $11 to $15 pps - increasing low-cost competition cutting into margins going forward - high R&D spending in wind energy, hydro?
Unfortunately, JST's #s don't bode well to be included in my portfolio. But I will give it another quarter in this year of the rabbit to prove me wrong.