Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Fiji Update on Partnering Arrangement
Vancouver, British Columbia, February 22, 2012 - Nautilus Minerals Inc confirms it has received formal notification that Teck Resources Limited has elected not to participate in exploration activities in Fijian waters under a regional area of interest agreement signed in December 2007.
In August 2011 Nautilus became the first private sector organisation to be granted offshore exploration licences in Fiji covering a total area of approximately 60,000 km2 triggering Teck's rights to jointly participate in exploration.
Teck retains an interest in Nautilus as a significant shareholder.
Good questions. All of the following is SPECULATION:
I would think that IF a current investor was to buy Nautilus it would be one that is most interested in Copper and Zinc. Also, I would think it would be one that is not "afraid to get their feet wet." If was anyone I would think Teck Resources. They are very interested in Zinc (http://www.miningweekly.com/article/teck-agrees-to-help-boost-zinc-fertiliser-use-in-china-2012-03-19) and they have funded most of the offshore expeditions for SMS deposits with Nautilus.
I think it can happen swiftly and quietly. As in 21 days from the time they approach the board. 21 Days is the length of time that the other big investors have of agreeing to or beating the buyout price.... At least that is the way I understand it; I don't fully understand the agreements.
The price action lately has been weird. Slow drip, drip, drip but the volume has been picking up. I hate to be cliche but, perhaps it is the quiet before the storm. Also, there has been very little news this quarter -- very quiet. The sub-contractors are busy though. The fact that the SMD already bought the sonars for the vehicles tells me that they are getting close to Factory Acceptance Testing. Metal has been cut for the ship so, things are happening. I would guess that while Nautilus is visiting Houston for OTC they will pay a visit to GE Oil and Gas (Pump) and Technip (Riser).
Perhaps the project is de-risked enough for a major want to take it all. OR perhaps our investment will sit dormant for another year. No crystal ball here... just guesses.
I don't know how I would feel about $15. It would be worth $15 today... after first ore it can be 4 times or more? Still not unreasonable numbers for a big company looking for first-mover advantage in a new frontier with MEGA concentrations, no-overburden on a very small footprint. Let's not forget that the "mine infrastructure" can be moved easily and there is a growing backlog (over 20) of SMS deposits!
You know, it would almost be negligent if a serious mining company DID NOT investigate the idea of buying out Nautilus.
P.S. Rogers has shares (as do most of the senior management) through options. Yes, he and the others will get a nice payday on a buyout -- but it will be the 5 or so large position holders that will say yea or nay.
SSD, thanks for the well wishes. I don't need to wish it for you long holders because when it happens I KNOW NUS is going to make anyone with shares very happy. Your post brings up concerns that I have as have have never had the luck to trade a company that was bought (or at least at the time I owned the stock).
If one of the seniors (current owners or not) decides to "swoop in" as you suggest, how do you seeing that play out? I certainly hope it doesn't happen but am concerned that Rogers and the other large percentage owners might agree to it. In that scenario, I am guessing that they would bring a cash and share offer. $ amount I can only guess but I imagine something north of $15. Then the company gets folded into say Anglo or Barrick who's share price remains pretty constant with the flow of the market, in so doing eliminating NUS and since it is mining so little gold compared to these other companies (at first) NUS's addition to their company won't add much to their bottom line.
So would that be it for the NUS share holder, a great $2 to $15 return but then that is all she wrote? Any knowledgeable and likely scenario's from a buyout prior to first ore would be greatly appreciated!
"If Rogers was wrong"? If he was wrong about the total collapse of the international capitalistic model? You've got to be kidding. It takes away from your credentials to be fanboy of Rogers when he was obviously wrong. Stop the equipment build and put this project on hold for 2 years because of a derivatives scandal and housing collapse which led gold soaring to all time highs? Gold is the business of NUS. He saved how much on the equipment build while burning through $60million a year?! Your argument has zero merit.
Unlike you, which I imagine you are retired, I trade stock for a living supporting a family of 5. I don't have the luxury of sitting back and 'investing' in a company that will do nothing then pay out in almost two years. I am working, making money, and waiting on the sidelines for NUS to SLOWLY get it's act together.
I have been here the entire time with this company, watching it's every move. If you are true to your word, you have made zero money over the last 2 years investing in NUS. Imagine if you had traded in Apple (200% return), Google (30% return), BAC(100% return) as some easy examples. Now, today you would have had double or triple the funds to purchase more NUS shares.
I am talking about actively investing and trading, you are preaching on a dream that will unfold 2 years hence... maybe. Have fun sitting on your hands for the next 24 months. I don't need to explain it, just simply look at the stock performance of NUS since the NIA pump and dump you did in the summer. $40,000 a day in activity. WOW.
...and if Rogers was wrong, Nautilus would be a bankrupt shell. Is that how you "invest" your money monk? Screw the risk, full speed ahead? Oh I forgot, you are too busy making a few $k here and a few $k there to worry about risk.
It speaks highly to me that the company is conservative by nature and does not take undue risks.
BTW today was another great sub-2 buying opportunity... did you pick any up monk or were you worried about moving the pps?!? Like SSD, I've been accumulating this one for a while. Once the news hits and it takes off, I'll be fully loaded while the latecomers and naysayers like monk are scrambling to get in while chasing the price higher.
PS monk, did you see the news about the landowners making headway on their discussions with Nautilus?
Hmm, let's see:
landowners - check
licenses - lots
equipment - under construction
partners - "A" team
funding - final traunch in progress
first ore - just over 1-1/2 years and closing rapidly
first mover advantage - priceless
I have never been successful at market timing. I am one of those buy and hold dinosaurs. I was a buyer at $4.49, at $0.63 and many places in between. Have not sold a share and don’t plan on doing so anytime soon. I became a buy and hold guy after being burned many times at trying to time the market… either I got out too early or I missed the opportunity to buy.
I think that is what we have here right now: an opportunity to buy. A single news event can change things overnight. Nautilus has large percentage owners who are mining experts – they can swoop in at anytime. If they are risk takers they may do it well before First Ore in order to reap the largest gains and secure the IP. Once first ore happens then the market cap for Nautilus can be so high as to make a buyout difficult.
Is it frustrating to wait? Sure is. Especially with little news. Marko was accurate earlier when he said that ‘no news’ does not equal ‘no progress’.
As you’ve mentioned before, this is a thinly traded stock (100K shares per day on a good day). It will not take much to move the share price when buying heats up.
All the Best,
awhg, don't listen to monk. he's bitter because he missed getting in at $1 and hasn't learned how to buy stealthily on dips. he'd rather try and bash it down, thinking lack of news = lack of progress.
Smart longs accumulate quietly and in a year from now monk will be chasing the price ever higher, kicking himself for not getting in sooner while it was "dead money".
Maybe they are getting tired of bleeding money into research and want the company to actually start mining and prove that they can do it. I remember a call maybe two years ago where an analyst asked what the cash burn rate was and Rogers said "about $60million a year". That was the call when they decided to put the equipment build on hold due to 'the macro economic climate'. Postponing digging up a mountain of gold because the US housing and derivatives markets popped while gold went from $700 to $1900 per oz.