The major stock market indices are approaching a significant top in the coming week or so. This peak will be the high for 2003 and most likely several years thereafter. The Dow may hesitate at it's Oct 02 low in the 7200 area, but once it breaches that level the decline should accelerate considerably. Initial support is in the 4700 area, but this level will most likely fail before an ultimate bottom is achieved.
I am not clairvoyant nor do I have a crystal ball. This forecast is not based on my subjective opinion nor on what I hope or wish to happen. It is based on the application of the Elliott Wave Principle to stock market data.
You may think that EWP, and perhaps all TA is hogwash. However, EWP has a nearly 70 year history of some of the most amazingly accurate long-term market forecasts. It is also widely used for short term trading by many market professionals, especially in commodities.
Or you may believe that I am an evil "short" posting this in an attempt to further my own ends. I do not think that message boards move the markets and I truly do believe this forecast.
If only one person manages to save his or herself from the coming crash this post will have served it's purpose.
I do expect a little more upside next week and I'm sure some may be scoffing at this post as this last gasp plays out. However, I do believe that in several weeks, anybody who has stayed long Intel or any stocks, will be wishing they had sold out.
Okay, now I get it. Unless your Warren Buffet, the world's second richest man or at least on Forbes Magazine's list of the richest people in the world you are an completely irrelevant idiot! How do you place against this criteria?
There it is. Corporations have been buying back their own shares instead of paying dividends because of tax penalties.
If they can payout dividends without tax consequences it could cause shareholder dilution. New shares may be issued as a cheaper option to corporate bonds as interest rates climb so any demand for dividend bearing stocks could be met with shareholder dilution.
It's a loss for the average investor.
Every time I take a long position I do it with a certain amount of fear.
With unemployment at an eight year high and retail at a 32 year low I have to agree our economy is in trouble.
It angers me to hear lip service from the news media glossing over the bad news just to paint a more investor friendly show every day.
The government and news media can't cover up the bad news forever and someday soon it will all come crashing down around those that listened with great hope in the hype.
I know what you mean. I bought INTC friday morning and I watched it like a hawk. Had to run out for a just a few minutes but I still entered a stop-market order beneath it in case the bottom fell out. Got out in the p.m., no way I was holding over the weekend.
Your right about the Government and the news media (+Wall St.) trying to paint a prettier picture for the public. I think the "someday" that you speak of is coming very soon.
Again, I don't know what Prechter is worth. As far as him being short from 1998 to 2000 I don't know about that either as I have been a subscriber to his newletters only since early 2001.
If he was recommending short positions and short himself during this period those shorts would have been based on EWP. Prechter only recommends trades with an excellent risk/reward ratio based on EWP and all such recommendations include an objective stop-loss point again based on the method. I could see Prechter suffering some small losses during that time but I don't think any would've been allowed to get out of hand.
So it seeems to me that the "suckers" who followed Prechter's advice in the early 80's could've easily afforded a few small losses at the end of the great bull market. Furthermore, following Prechter's advice since early 2000 certainly has been very lucrative.
I think next week is KEY, they, whomever THEY are, will push hard to spin the right story to keep things moving, and since they can see the same charts and trends as everyone can, THEY know that 1520 is an important level on the NAZ and 8800 on the DOW.
Close to the high may be in, OR we may be setting up a heckuva support level here. Dont underestimate the powers that be, because IF they want this market to power on up, IT WILL.
Does not matter about fundamentals, TA, Charts, Trends, etc. UP we will go
BUT, that is all the harder it will fall because fundamentals, TA, Charts, Trends, etc. will matter at some point in time.
The best way, in my opinion, to FLIP those on the fence about the market going up or down is to take out with a POWER the apparent overhead resistance. And if you dont think they cant do it, then you were not watching FRIDAY very closely, because THEY took what should have tanked the market over 50-75 points and turned it UP hard into a str up incline for the first 1.5hrs.
In the long run, this market is headed lower, just depends on when THEY let it....
EDIT: have to correct a previous post, posted a value for INTC as 8.22, when in fact was 18.22
at what level, price, do you see the turn and assuming your talking the corrective final wave 5 down???
does your chart reflect any values on the NAZ?
My channel chart is showing the channels upper band heading back to the 200dma as the 200dma declines. My best guess at the current rate of decent of the 200dma and uptrend of the upper channel on the chart should be in the SOX 355-60 range, assuming the channel keeps trending upwards.
NOW, I dont expect the SOX value to reach the 200dma just the upper band while the SOX value should be mid to upper channel. THIS will be an important key to watch IMHO. If this somehow coincides with other key indicators, Elliot Wave corrective patterns, Stoch and MACD showing overbought then that might just be too much for the old SOX to handle at the same point in time, and as you know if you build a house of cards, just takes the RIGHT one to be pulled out for things to tumble down.
THAT could that be the key. To have converging sell signals happen relatively close in unison, thus triggering program selling as well as stop loss orders, coupled with a lack of buyers and down you go. Opinions?????????
Thats why I am asking if your model gives a projected date and/or NAZ value for the reversal??
My best guess using this indicator, again assuming current rates of decline in the 200dma and incline of upper channel is 10-15 trading days +/- 2 days.
Last time the SOX was at the 355-60ish value was 12/3- 12/4. If you will look, the SOX closed down hard on 12/3 at 355.62, opened 12/4 at 344.54 and has gone down from then on creating a GAP between 344.54-355.62, important? I think so.
We are steadily heading upwards on the SOX to close the gap. Ask yourself this, WHY are all stocks, esp semis going up in lock step?? Are ALL the semis undervalued at the same point in time? Dont think so, UNLESS the SOX is being pulled back up to close the gap and then that would explain the rising all boats theory for all the semi stocks uptrend.
INTC closed 12/3 at 20.31, opened 12/4 19.40, creating a GAP, are things becoming clearer NOW???
OK, now to muddy the water. We closed the SOX friday at 331.69 and the last time the SOX closed at or around that value was 12/16.
INTC's closing price 12/16 was 8.22. So the last time the SOX closed at the same value as friday's close, INTC was .80 higher or 4%.
Significant, I think so.
Seems that INTC's value in relationship to the SOX is declining. SO, dont watch INTC for the turn around, watch the SOX IMHO.
NOW, if this IS a reversal of the bear market trend, then the upper channel will break THRU the 200dma and bring the SOX value up to meet the 200dma and THEN you will have your answer. If it fails, watch out below, if it pierces and holds on the first re-test, shuck all shorts and go long, IMHO.
Remember, it was the Semi's that started the last big uptrend in Oct last year. So, could it be the semi's that start the next down trend?
ONLY THE SHADOW KNOWS, boohahahahaha!!
OK,yours and other opinions appreciated.