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Intel Corporation Message Board

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  • maximum_probability maximum_probability May 2, 2009 1:21 AM Flag

    INTC closes above 16 in next few

    That 15-16 range is getting old. I mean its probably something that hasnt happen in past 20 years (to have such tight range for so long and so narrow bollinger bands) . Something has got to give here. Either we tank or we break for 20 . Since it doesnt seem reasonable to tank to 12 (although you never know) i am tempted to say next move is a break out over 16 for serious size. Its not fundamentally warranted yet though so maybe some wild news comes out next 2 weeks to make it rationally possible. Either way there is massive stress accumulated here and any move that takes place will be huge. So look for 13 strike puts and even 17 calls as soon as july even earlier.

    Currently we are blocked by some 16.2 2sd level resistance but this time we may actually move over 2sd because somehow the band has to open up . However its not sensible strategy to buy calls when rallying and certainly over 16 is very risky. So my suggestion is to look for buying out of the money puts when we rally and out of the money calls when we drop. Then hold both and expect a huge move very soon.

    If very positive on the stock long term buying shares or leaps at any price (preferably in down days) is ok though since the trend will be your friend eventually and 20+ is a given in my opinion for 6-12 months forward. Even 25 in 2 years.

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    • 20+ is a given in my opinion for 6-12 months forward. Even 25 in 2 years.

      ---------------

      You expect 20+ in as little as 6 months and "even" 25 in 2 years?

      20+ means 21, 22, 23 to most and you think that level could be acheived in 6 months.

      after the stock reaches 20+ you then expect it to be basically range bound for 1 1/2 years?

      you're a dolt.

      • 2 Replies to jesse_james_blitch
      • "you're a dolt"

        Please do not insult the citizens of Titusville in this fashion. Max is in a category all by himself. He's at least six sigma below mu on the normal intelligence distribution.

      • Do you understand logic as in math logic or not? I said even 25 which means 25 at least you smart alec (i didnt say at max 25) ! Of course if we clear 20 we can go to 30 in 2 years or more. Those are just targets that are realistic in my opinion. If the market recovers as the economy some claim will start hinting things are turning we will indeed see 20 before january. If that fails or it is then sold and we drop sub 20 for a period yes we will get to 25+ later because the economy is bound to recover when you have no idiots in the administration but actually intelligent decent people with love for science. There will be massive infrastructure build up so yes 25 is reasonable. I never mentioned 25 as a high for the next 2 years. I cannot say 30 not because it wont happen but because it will ahve some 20-30% chance not 50% or 60%. I can say however 25 is a reasonable number to count on with say some 60-70% confidence. Of course if we go to 20 and things are ok we can see 30 then in 12-18 months. The reason i said 25 is because we will not only need the economy to expand nicely but intel earnings to also rise to some 5-7 bil $ or over 1-1.2 per share and this will take time to happen! So we can rally on good hints and future anticipation of better earnings but then after some rally we will actually need to justify PE and other metrics and this will take time. Unless you think they will award intel a 30 pe any time soon before it delivers. Intel will have to deliver 5-10 bil/yr in the next 2 years at some point and then it will be indeed flirting with 30 since 10 bil per year is a pe 17 and easily i can imagine pe 20 or 22 if things have started to look rosy again in terms of cash flow. So give me 1.2 1.5 per share per year and we will see 30. But we will need to deliver. Right now its a hint of recovery possibility but in 2 years we need actual earnings to justify any optimism towards 20 this year and over 25 later. You see 20 will not happen because earnings are great. 20 will happen because people will start expecting happily a recovery seeing other nice things happen all around. But then the real work has to prove itself! So that 20 wont be justified due to earninsg it will be justified due to sentiment momentum . Thats why we can rally and then take a break until we rally for 50% further after proving we are not kidding ourselves as a company.

        Is it clear now? Care to apologize for thinking i am making moronic statements? Who is the dolt now? Or rather who is the eager to not think outside the box?

 
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