What exactly is going on with INTC?
Great earnings, numerous upgrades, growth,... and on top of that, spikes two days ago, and down 3%... down 3% from that.
Can someone break it down and 'crystallize it' for me... 'cause I give up trying to understand it.
Saying its just 'manipulation' doesn't help!! Why? How on such a widely traded stock?
Per manipulation, I can see lowering the price a bit to take out 'stops', but then the logical thing to do would allow it to go back up. Then there is the keep price static and write calls and puts, collect the premium until expiration. May be... but can you keep it down for an extended period of time, in the face of all the positives?
The alternative, of course, is that INTC is trading at a fair value in this market, and not as great as we longs think it is.
thanks in advance.
Would you ask the same of other global-cap dividend paying technology stocks like Hewlett Packard, IBM, Emerson Electric, etc.? That's the class of Intel, and its investors don't seek volatility. Its beta is just slightly over 1.00, people want gradual growth, not rocket ship growth. You need to invest your growth money elsewhere - NVDA, MRVL, AAPL, etc.
Good post. That is why Intel and IBM and the other names you cite have been lagging of late.
I recall that during the dot.com boom, there was a front page NY Times article whose headline stated something like "Dividends Don't Matter". The Naz collapse was within weeks from the printing of that article.
I think future earnings would be around $1.2 to $1.7/share with higher earnings in some years and lower in other years. With a P/E of 15x (around historic levels), a reasonable price falls between $18 and $26/share. Shorts are betting on the lower end and longs are betting on the higher end. Depending on who is more active on a given day, the price flactuates. Predicting whether shorts or longs will be more active is beyond my skills, I can only do simple algebra. But I think that at $20.70/share, there is nothing really wrong with Intel. Like another poster suggested, load the truch at $18-$19 and go to the beach.
I remember Guy Adami in Fast Money quoting Goldman Sachs last July/August that they felt INTC will reach peak earnings by the end of the year. Ever since that talk, stock has not moved. So thank Goldman Sucks and Guy a-dummy for the INTC stagnation.
I have to believe that breakout will finally occur after Q1 earnings. The current weakness could be due to Intel going into quiet period without any clear updates about business.
But Intel has proven in Q4 that it doesn't need an update to still beat the highest expectations in earnings. In Q1, Intel has to say more than usual to push the stock up or face the music during their anual analyst meeting on May 1st. I'm looking for a strong buyback announcement after Q1 earnings to add some buying pressure on stock.
I am perplexed about intc as well. Shorting intc seems to be an on going... to say the least. However, I believe this next earning report will reveal were the company is headed. A push over 21. would be a start. Long!!!
It is simple; Intel is the pinata for the liberal financial press. One slight slight miss step and it is in the news for the next week (numerous times a day). Any positive news is glossed over like it is reporting the sun came up this morning. The solution, Intel has to hire black, hispanic, women in wheel chairs for its top executives and members of the board. Then they might get some fair treatment in the financial press. Such is the sorry state of the values of our country at this time.
THANKS, for asking the very puzzling questions I find myself pondering while holding a BUNCH of call options.
NOW .... Im puzzling over who has it figured correctly and wether they're even remotely correct??
Several problems. One--INTC has not settled with the FTC, nor the State of New York--and they involved in European Courts trying to get the EU financial and other sanctions overturned or reduced. Until these issues are resolved, the stock is going nowhere.
Two--they have the wrong person as CEO. He is a lifer, and his strategies reflect INTC's past--not its future. Until he is gone, nothing is changing. If you bother to look, the stock price today is lower and than when the current CEO took the helm--and the same scenario played out with the previous CEO--see the pattern?
Three--their growth strategies, if they exist at all, are in the rear view mirror. This company desperately needs a visionary leader, like Andy Grove was. Since 1997, INTC has followed Andy with two listless CEO's who have stagnated the company. Their track record on acquisitions is dismal. This company has more starts and stops than an urban bus.
Bottom line--their next CEO should come from the outside--they need fresh blood at the helm.