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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • alphamojo alphamojo May 21, 2010 1:18 PM Flag


    I have just one thing to say "Price Elasticity". I believe that Intel is low-balling on forecasts big time and keeping the magnitude of their 2010-2015 and beyond international opportunity a big secret. For example, India just completed their sale of added 3G Cell spectrum raising $15 billion. Paul Otellini (Intel President) was in all likelihood low-balling when he spoke at Brookings earlier this year and said that he expected 100 million new broadband WiMax connections in India "by 2012". (The sale of WiMax spectrum in India is about to follow on the heels of the 3G cellular spectrum.) Otellini meant "sometime between Jan 1st 2012 and year end 2012" when he spoke at Brookings. When laptop, netbook and nettop(as some versions of these small computers are called in India) reach ASPs to the buyer of $190-$250 by the end of this year, the "elasticity factor" will occur big time and sales to the Indian middle class will explode. Remember, this is a nation of 1.3 billion people with a rapidly growing middle class. Intel's forecast of 100 million new WiMax broadband connections "by 2012" could prove to be drastically low and actually turn out to be 150 million. Using the more conservative figure of 100 million, assuming that Intel maintains its embedded PC motherboard and related device market share of around 75%, and that the PC ASP is only $200 results in a market of $15 billion. If Intel realizes 50% of this revenue, they will earn $7.5 billion over the period. Conservatively, the breakdown of revenue to Intel from new Indian sales could be $500 million in 2010, $2.5 billion in 2011 and $4.5 billion in 2012. And by mid-2011, Intel will have begun agressively exploiting this price elasticity opportunity in other emerging markets throughout the world such as China, Russia and Brazil.

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