I like the NASDAQ, it offers good data.
All 6 of the buys were from David Shannon. It looks like those buys were just a side effect of the way he filled out his Form 4 information. On Feb 14th, Huang exercised 63,600 shares (OE) and then immediately sold (AS) them. That is the clean way of filling out the Form 4.
Shannon is the Corporate Counsel and it looks like he filled out the Form 4 in a different way. It looks like he was working with two different accounts. He did an (1) Option Exercise, (2) Automatic Sell, (3) Automatic Buy and then (4) an Automatic Sell. Two buys and two immediate sells of the same number of shares. The net was to exercise options and then sell. His salary is only $326.0K which is light for the company and position. He probably has some bills.
CLICK on Shannon's name in the NASDAQ list for just Shannon's transaction.
Well they plan to do a Server/HPC version of ARM with their Project Denver. Although wanting to do it and actually doing it are different things ;-). They hired a lot of ex-Transmeta guys when that x86 clone company went under challenging Intel although they did Intel a favor in the long run as it generated Pentium-M and then Core 2 as a derivative so competition is good ... as long as you are the winner lol.
Also Nvidia has to compete with Qualcom and Marvell. Both of them have ARMH architectural licenses as opposed to the lessor core license that Nvidia has. So, they can do much more extensive tweaks than Nvidia and therefore address a much greater range of customer needs. As Qualcom and Marvell customize more and more solutions who is going to want a hamstrung Nvidia solution?
Nvidia's star has risen and in the not to distant future, it's going to start to set...
[Thanks and a hat-tip to NI for the excellent assessments of Nvidia. ]
Yep, you nailed the long term problems with Nvidia. OTOH if they keep ahead of the ARM clones in processors on a constant basis they may always be first in new models. Also combining their gpu with ARM may give them some differentiation to the other ARM clones and if they get the ARM clone close to x86 in performance may even take some mainstream business down the line like AMD with Bulldozer, Llano and Bobcat. However the path is very difficult and they are facing Intel, AMD and every other ARM clone in an arms race. I know daysofshred thinks it's in the bag but old veterans have seen many challenge Intel and fail losing their companies in the process. 20% chance of success I would say which are not good odds but you never know ... they just might surprise us all ;-).
I still see six buys as well however the last 3 months
they always sell during the entire year,happened even in the low teens
Nvidia has a flawed business model.
They are getting squeezed from both sides on the graphics business by AMD and Intel.
They need a connectivity strategy to integrate into their smartphones, which they don't have.
The second wave of tablet designs will illustrate this as they lose market share to the better and more comprehensive products.
Wall Street not being very swift on the uptake hasn't figured this out yet. The insiders obviously have. They are taking the money and running. Why would any investor not do the same?
Good luck to you too. I appreciate the reasonable interaction.
I think you are correct about NVDA future .... based on your assumptions. Based on the knowledge that all those items you cite, the P/E ratio is cheap.
My reluctance is based more on the heavy insider selling. The CEO has sold 2/3 of his shares. There are many reasons for insiders to sell but if NVDA was so cheap, why doesn't a single insider of them buy a single share?
There is no real answer to my question. The answer will come over time as NVDA either continues to execute or encounters a hiccup. Time will tell if the insiders were dopes or did not clearly describe the future. However, a litany of NVDA technical accomplishments and reasons to buy is not an answer to my question either.
I will monitor NVDA. I never thought I would buy QCOM, but I bought at $38 when it became a value play. I am up 50% on the stock and made 70% on the put options which I covered before they expired worthless.
tegra2 is taking the handset market by storm
brcm eg is in serious trouble(check their pps the last couple of days)
nvidia will be the first to unleash a quad core soc(august) and tegra4 is in the pipeline
google "project denver" btw?
based on that knowledge,forward p/e is cheap
then there's the supercomputer thingie which you may have heard about?
hpc,tesla,cuda,3D systems being used for speeding up breasth cancer research and other medical purposes(3D echo foetus display in real time),3d vision,the best gpu cards(with optimus)...
anyways good luck (in whatever you decide to do)