t's possible and likely that Intel will ramp up for a five year period. I don't know of any other company whose five year prospects look so promising. Yesterday's tri-gate announcement was extremely important in providing this potential.
This is where it really starts to get interesting...
5 years!??They are expecting to have the new technology in computers by the end of 2012. Where are the Japanese and Chinese chip makers? Ha!! And poor AMD...unless they have something cooking in the labs that could be equally earth-shaking.... This is going to be fun!!
It sounded like Ivy Bridge (introduction next quarter?) was only going to be available on 22nm. Each processor volume ramp is steeper than the previous so I would expect a more aggressive conversion to the new process than 5-years.
We know that the Cloud is going to grow for years and drive server revenues. We know that the shrinking cost and increasing power of processors is going to result in an exponential expansion of processors into a wide range of non-computing areas for automotive, medical, energy and other uses.
We know that other technologies will be developed to compliment SSDs and Thunderbolt. And we know that Intel's enormous cash generation capability will lead to significant other acquisitions to further increase revenues and profits.
We know now that Intel has a three year advantage before anyone else will be offering the tri-gate technology. This is because on one else is going to use it on 22nm. This means the first use by anyone else will be on 14nm and that's not happening for three years. So, Intel will have 3 years to build products superior to all other fabrication facilities. And this is on top of it's existing 1 to 2 year lead in fabrication on the flat "planer" chip designs that all fabs are currently using.
This will of course lead to a much, much more competitive stance with tablets and smartphones. Intel is expected to draw even with ARM with the planer 22nm production due in the second half of this year. The 3D design should put them ahead and then the wave of new fabrication with 14, 10 and 7nm should put them even further in front.