What if Intel gets 25% of world on PC upgrade cycle.
Every four years or so, this new 1.5 billion core PC owners will need to upgrade their PC. Most obviously will get low to mid level computers costing between $300 to $800. That means, every 4 years or so, Intel will see revenues just from this area of about $100 Billion. That's about $37 Billion a year. Then, there is the core Apple owners which seem to be growing to about 4 million Macs per quarter. That's 16 million a year. These guys will be equipped with an Intel chip with ASP of about $200 at least. That's another $3 Billion a year. So just from the consumer PC segment, Intel will enjoy about $40 Billion, without the tablet. Currently, Intel is having about $33 Billion a year in the whole PC client group, which include corporate PC. In a few year's time, we will see the consumers alone contributing about $40 Billion a year to PC sales. Corporate could be another $10 Billion, Servers about $15 Billion the way it's growing, and tablet with other embedded systems could contribut to Atom sales totalling about $5 Billion or so. That's about $70 Billion, not counting software. So we could see $55 Billion for 2011, $63 Billion for 2012, and over $70 Billion for 2013.