Normally trade the QQQ via the QLD/QID, but the charts were a bit sloppy, while the macd had rolled over, there were some pretty sharp spikes higher, switched back to INTC under 22.00 near the 50 day, and caught a fair piece of the move back above 22.00. Fought the trend, mistake, when it turned, price, lower, with a last sell Thursday at 21.86, lucky exit. Friday, when the 5 minute on the QQQ showed oversold, grabbed at few, and exited on the overbght 5 minute.
I tend to rely soley on technicals. Fundamentals can be quite misleading as they don't discount black swan events, ie CRUS has a pe of 5, was it a good buy with a pe of 10?)Technicals are rarely misleading, ie if the rsi and macd are headed up, not a not a good idea to short or sell, (one exception-holding over earnings which can be rewarding or disastrous). Conversely, if the macd and the rsi are pointing down, not a good idea to be buying (exception- an oversold rsi reading) though the better practice is to wait for signal confirmation.
Plenty of folks have SPY 1250 as a short term target, ie market lower, though rsi 30 levels are appearing in many places, CRUS, SMH, QQQ, GFI, GE at current levels. Have been using charts for quite some time, daily as well as real time 5 minute.
The mistake many an "investor" makes is to to ride a stock from an overbght level all during a decline as selling gradually increases, or averages down during a decline, aka Cramer.
FWI, SPY 1250 also represents the bottom of the uptrend line off the March 09 lows, the theory being if, as when, 1250 breaks, the bull market, ie really bear market rally, is over.
Bullish rsi divergence showed up on ZRAN Thursday, evidence of confirmation Friday, sharp rebound all day despite the gap open lower/thinly traded.