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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Jun 30, 2011 3:38 AM Flag

    Think Intel Is Old Tech? You’re Wrong

    "Conventional wisdom is that Intel is an old tech has-been, in the mold of innovation laggards long past their prime. Whereas it seems evident that Dell, Hewlett-Packard, Microsoft, Cisco, Research in Motion and Nokia are joining Digital Equipment, Lotus, Burroughs, Sperry and Motorola as former leaders that have hit the wall, Intel belongs far from that list. The argument is straightforward: Intel remains a tech innovator, high up on the list of Cloud and mobility winners. That thesis is about to emerge into clear view as second quarter earnings are reported and second half outlooks are framed.

    With next generation Macbook Airs based on Intel’s latest Sandy Bridge processors, the latter can now argue to those building Air clones they’ve got the only viable solution. nVidia graphics are no longer an option due to power consumption and cost, neither is AMD, due to power. Elimination of key chip rivals is a big win for Intel, which is clearly concerned with Apple outpacing the PC pack. Stepped up U.S. supercomputer funding and ongoing data center building is additive to low-end Automatic Sample Processors (ASPs), 4x that of the late 1990s.

    The just introduced Sandy Bridge ultra low voltage (ULV) pricing sustains upward mix ASPs, with the upcoming $999 Macbook Air sporting a $200+ processor. That processor will be followed up in nine months with a 22nm Ivy Bridge ULV that nearly halves power consumption. This will morph into low end $95 22nm ULV parts by this time next year, prospectively bolstering unit demand and even giving the iPad a run for its money. With DRAM, LCD batteries and solid state memory materially cost-reduced, Intel garners the highest capture rate ever. This is hardly the sign of a tech laggard. In fact, just the opposite.

    Should the likes of HP, Lenovo and Dell field Ultrabooks with the same Intel processors at $899 with solid state memory, or $799 with a hard disk drive, Intel content only further increases. Then Intel could execute on a $95 i3 ULV CPU at 22nm – its revolutionary 3D Tri-gate production process – next summer, and a $599 Ultrabook market could explode, with ARM headed off at the pass. Apple’s ecosystem allows it to hang out with a $799 Macbook Air, gain mainstream enterprise acceptance and better than double market share in two years – devastating any and all rivals.

    Data Center software continues to rise above the 15% forecast rate – we see no reason why the recent 30% annual gains cannot sustain – and overall 2011 revenue handily exceeds Wall Street consensus. 2012 represents another solid growth year for Intel’s core businesses, validating the aggressive capital outlays already announced. Tablets and smartphones will be next.

    Conclusion: Intel is today valued as Old Tech, providing a huge investment opportunity if just some of the breaks go their way. It could just be the next year, or two, will see Intel regain its footing. That’s our case. Buy."

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    • This latest tri-gate transistor technology which will be launched in Q3 by Intel has got Apple salivating. After Intel delivers earnings growth of over 25% for 2011, this latest technological advance will allow Intel to continue 20% or more growth for 2012 at the very least. A 15% annual growth on average for the next 5 years is pretty much in the bag as far as I can tell given Intel's recent history and their way of communicating their confidence. Intel will deliver strong on the numbers. So investors can either buy now, or wait till Intel announces another buyback authorization that's more than $25 Billion. Which within the next 3 years can be filled in one year's time.

    • More at link.

      A good read...

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