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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • alexander.dumbass alexander.dumbass Aug 2, 2011 2:54 PM Flag

    OPTION Trades ($6mil bet)

    It looks like someone made a trade of 50,000 contracts at Sept expiration. There is 50K+ volume today in the Sep $21 put and 50k+ volume in the Sep $22 Call.

    The 50k volume exceeds the 31k put open interest and the 6k call open interest which implies a new position and that they are related.

    It looks like a $21/$22 strangle. If it is a long strangle, where they bought both sides (puts and calls), they have paid $1.20 betting that INTC will be more than $1.20 higher than $22 or $1.20 lower than $21.

    IF they sold both sides, they are betting that INTC ends Sep between $21 and $22.

    For 50,000 contracts, that is 5,000,000 shares at $1.20 or a $6,000,000 bet.

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    • You basically just said someone made a big bet on Intel, but there's no way to know if they bet that it's going down or up...... Nice information (rolls eyes).

      • 2 Replies to getmeoutuhhere
      • .... and then this just found on whats trading . com.

        Intel (INTC) loses 34 cents to $21.90 and is one of 29 Dow stocks under water today. Only Traveler's (TRV) is holding a modest gain within the industrial average. The top options trades in the chipmaker today are a Sep 21 - 22 strangle at $1.20, 44000X on ISE. The market was $1.19 to $1.22 at the time and ISE data indicate the position was crossed from B/D to B/D. The strangle was also tied to 660K shares at $22.02 and looks opening. A seller might have initiated the trade. If so, it's not necessarily a bullish or bearish play, but a bet that Intel shares will hold in a range between $21 and $22 through the September expiration, which is in 46 days.

      • Exactly. It is hard to tell if they were buyer or seller with public information.

        The short position bets on a $21-$22 range is very risky if the stock moves either way. A bet on low/no volatility through Sep.

        I would be inclined to think that it was a long position betting on share price movement (high volatility up/down).

        It could also be a very bullish bet where the calls were bought and the puts were sold ... or the reverse for extreme bearish.

        I think that INTC is undervalued where at its current price and expect that a large bet would be leaning bullish. I think it would be a long strangle betting on movement and since I lean bullish, I would think up. None of the option sites have added more information about it.

    • IF there is much dividend arbitraging going on, there will be shares bought as the option holders exercise the call options before expiration today so they can get the dividend and then dispose of the shares ex-dividend using straight sales (if INTC is over their put strike) or by exerising put options they hold.

 
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