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Intel Corporation Message Board

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  • getanid61 getanid61 Nov 12, 2011 10:31 AM Flag

    Wow, ARMH about to devistate Intel

    "The bottom line problem with ARM is the same thing other RISC platforms have run into in the past. Money. Walley talks about fabs and yes it's this but more. Intel has the capital to expand into new fabs, and start elaborate marketing programs. ARM just can't do the same thing. "

    The world's fabs, and world's design houses are all going ARM. SO it's INtel vs the world's money...

    "I've seen very well written articles from engineers who can point out how and why ARM can beat Intel in low power performance processors"

    I'm an engineer, and I can point many, many, many tablets & phones that are ARM and NOT INtel...
    Why ? "low power performance processors"

    "Can you afford advertising campaigns to make your product a brand name that people will prefer in markets all over the world? "

    Naive... the world's $$ is pouring into ARM...

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    • I see the ARM marketing department is back. Still in total denial about ARM's fabrication void.

      ***

      "The world's fabs, and world's design houses are all going ARM. SO it's INtel vs the world's money...

      [The world's fabs. Ha. They are all struggling because they are all separate. Are any of them building a 14nm fab? Nope, just Intel. Is there even a projected start date for an ARM 14nm fab? Nope. Well why not? They don't have the technology. Thus the big, huge void in ARM's fabrication. All a result of the ARM shops being fabless. You can have as many design shops as you want. But someone has to build the chips. Nvidia's brand new Tegra3. 40nm. The design shops keep trying to improve 40nm designs. Because it's all they can build. Only 10 percent of TMSC's production will be 28nm by the end of 2012. Count 2012 as a lost year for ARM.]

      "I've seen very well written articles from engineers who can point out how and why ARM can beat Intel in low power performance processors"

      [You've seen them but never posted them up. Hmmm, why is that? How can ARM beat Intel when it has lost the fabrication race? They are going to rely on those 40nm chips to beat Intel? While Intel cranks out lower and lower power consumption chips with new fabrication facilities?]

      "I'm an engineer, and I can point many, many, many tablets & phones that are ARM and NOT INtel... Why ? "low power performance processors"

      ["I'm an engineer" Yeah, yeah, yeah - and I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night. Maybe if you were an engineer who worked for Intel I'd be impressed, but being the generic engineer is meaningless. Plus if you are an engineer why are you working in the marketing department? In two years Intel will fully overtake ARM in the low processor area. Because they have the fabrication and ARM doesn't. ARM is standing still.]

      Naive... the world's $$ is pouring into ARM..."

      [Really? Let's see you back this silly statement up. Intel spends more on R&D than ARM has in total revenue much less net profits. So exactly where is the money coming from to try to stay in the fabrication race? No where. That's why TMSC constantly talks about the economic problems of moving to advanced fabrication. Take some of that engineering background of yours and tell us how TMSC is going to handle the moves to EUV and 450mm wafers. They are worried sick about it and with good reason. Bottom line: ARM doesn't have the money to stay in the fabrication race. It's already lost. In March Intel will be bringing the proof with 22nm Ivy Bridge products. It's just the start in wave after wave of ramping fabrication technology. Intel is moving on up while ARM is stuck in neutral. The fabrication problem for ARM is getting worse and the money for fabs problem is getting worse even faster. All the ARM fanboi postings in the world aren't going to change that...]

      ***

      Thank you once again for the opportunity to highlight ARM's looming fabrication crisis...

    • ltisteve@verizon.net ltisteve Nov 12, 2011 1:08 PM Flag

      "I'm an engineer, and I can point many, many, many tablets & phones that are ARM and NOT INtel...
      Why ? "low power performance processors"

      A lot of my friends are engineers. Good people mainly, but the mindset is a bit different than a businessman. Yes there is a market for low power performance processors as we have seen over the last couple of years. Just remember, Intel isn't in it yet. So not only does the new dynamic pit ARM processor company against ARM processor company but also against Intel. If ARM had one united front, yes it would be harder to compete against. They don't. There are many smaller competitors. And before you go on about the power of Samsung and TI and Qualcom and Nvidia the PowerPC had IBM behind it. IBM!

      "Naive... the world's $$ is pouring into ARM..."


      I think it's naive to underestimate Intel. You point out the history like things will never change? Past history is no prediction of future performance.


      There is nothing you can take for granted when it comes to the future. If Llano didn't have manufacturing problems at GF and if Bulldozer was a better processor AMD may be hiring today instead of laying off. We had guys on this board six months ago connecting the dots for AMD stating that it was about to take off. They could have been right.

      I believe that 2012 and 2013 will be the years that dictate the next 10 years in the processor industry. Miss steps are costly. Even Apple is facing some uncertainty as this year draws to close. They made bank on ARM based products, and now they are starting to go cold. If I told you six months ago that a tablet from Amazon would challenge Apple's iPad you would have laughed and laughed.

      It only proves one thing, the market is dynamic. This is a good thing. You want new trends to catch on. I do believe that there is a huge market for tablets at under $200 and an ever larger one at under $100. Just like Ultrabooks probably won't really take off until they are under $500.

      There is a lot of talk about processors and fabs. Not as much talk about products and price points. That's what will drive sales.

      What has been interesting as well has been the little brief mentions about "Design Wins" for Atom over the past couple of years. For an arguably lousy processor they have picked up thousands of wins. So, the question is, why would you put an inferior processor in an embedded application when you can get a cheaper and better one from ARM? Many of these products have a ten year life cycle and looking down the road they felt that Intel will be around.

      ARM is up against a TIC TOC approach to fab ramp ups against Intel. Intel has also spent billions on advertising and has a strong brand name. Worse yet they have the cash to promote new products. Citing processor specs and past performance will only get you so far. I can't wait for next year to see how this all plays out.

    • Everyone wants to keep there product proprietary and the ARM 'solution' offers that, but for the EXACT same reason AAPL ultimately dropped the PowerPC, ARM too will fall to the wayside... It is just too expensive to try to compete with the INTC development cycle. It is true that INTC has neglected power saving for sheer performance, but that doesn't mean they can't... they just haven't bothered to, up to this point.

 
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