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  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Nov 20, 2011 5:30 PM Flag

    Fabrication Primer for Fanbois-Part I

    So, now let's check on how ARM and Intel are doing on fabrication.

    ARM has had manufacturing problems at 40nm and at 28nm. Their movement towards full production on 28nm is moving very slowly as indicated by TSMC saying that 28nm production will only reach 10 percent of revenues at the end of 2012. We have no idea when 20nm production will reach full volume but obviously it will have to come after 28nm.

    And then the real problems start. The ARM roadmap stops after 20nm. They don't have the technology or plans to build a plant at 14nm. There are no predictions when it might happen. But it's going to be years and years. And they might have to figure out EUV at the same time.

    Meanwhile Intel has five 22nm fabs and is already in volume production. Their 14nm fab is already under construction. They have the technology that will be the standard for the next ten years. And they will continue to build new fabs every eight quarters.

    Yes, this is a crisis for ARM. Their roadmap stops at 20nm. A crisis they cannot solve in anything less than years and maybe not at all...

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    • You would have us believe that as Intel produces better and better chips that ARM will not only continue to sell their old technology chips, but that they will continue to ramp up sales at the same rate.

      No sane person would buy your argument.

      If this explanation doesn't work for you, let me know and I'll make you a subliminal tape and you can play it while you sleep...

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