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  • theblueredmonk theblueredmonk Nov 20, 2011 10:14 PM Flag

    Fabrication Primer for Fanbois-Part I

    It doesn't matter how many cores ARM shipped last quarter.

    ARM's revenues have to keep headed up at an incredible rate in order to continue to justify that HUGE P/E ratio.

    There's just no way they can do that with only shipping 10 percent 28nm processors at the end of 2012 and then having more delays on 20nm and then having no plan to move to 14nm.
    ...
    I'm starting to detect some real panic in you ARM fanbois over this issue. If you were smart you would have just kept it quiet and low-balled it. With your 50 posts a day, all you have done is brought extra attention to ARM's fabrication problems. And now the word is getting out...
    -----

    Perhaps you are right. We'll see an article in the ee times pointing to this board and the wisdom you are presenting. Days later the entire ARM ecosystem collapses. Or maybe not.

    You really don't understand the numbers. Or ARM. Or the business model. For that mater you dont seem to have a grasp of technology either.

    For some reason you (and others) think that ARM's future growth depends on taking market share from Intel. This is not the case.

    For the next few years hardly any revenue (if any at all) will be derived from Intel's core markets. So where will the growth come from to (partly) justify that lofty PE?

    * Micro controllers. The 'low end', the $1 chip.
    * Design wins in other embedded markets (such as smart TV, set top box).
    * The near doubling of royalty generated per chip (from 1% to 2%) in the smart phone/tablet section (due to the increases ARM IP in each chip) @ 28nm and below.

    This later point is one of the key *reasons* why the pe ratio is high.

 
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