I know this board and most investment boards have become pathetic over the last 11 years of a Bear market. That was to be expected. But this is simply the way it is with markets, boom and bust.
Did you happen to see the growth chart that Paul O showed at the last presentation. Intel is growing at a shockingly rapid rate. It has just completely wiped out its only competitor in servers and Desktops. It is of course being attacked by ARMH but it goes both ways and this is where the fun comes for Intel. Intel is attacking ARM corporation in tablets and phones. I say ARM but of course I refer to all arm chip makers such as Qualcom.
Still, the Perma Bears sit there and yell that Intel is old and old is dead.
Microsoft is dead and Intel must be dead too, say they.
First, Intel makes hardware not software. Second, Intel makes its CPUs for any software. But you know this and do not care because Intel is old and you hear that the Intel X86 chips will be replaced by the Arm based chips. You look at the stock price for Intel and see that it has been dead for a decade and that is all you need to know. You always come back to that.
Just---if you miss this, you will be regretting it. Just look at Intel a minute. Look at the growth the last two years. Look at its new fabs to come. Look at the shrink in its chips. AND especially for you heavily invested in Arm based chips, look at Intel's coming phone chips.
Do you realize that Intel is getting close to making 4 billion dollars net per quarter?
Do you understand that when Intel sells its chips into tablets and the like that it still makes close to 100 dollars per chip? When it sells into phones, it will still make that.
OK--the Arm fanboys and Intel bashers will say that Arm chips sell for 30 dollars and so why oh why would a phone maker use an Intel chip at near 100? Answer is--because a phone with Intel inside becomes a computer and a phone. it can talk easily to all X86 based software at work and at home.
It is fast and cool.
Down sides? Yes Intel will get sued again for antitrust violations as it crushes ARM and qualcom and the rest. So what.
When you wake up in the morning and Intel is over 80 dollars a share, that will not bother you.
This company has THE CHIP that will power Devices for the next 20 years or longer.
It is an American ICON. Funny that AMD ran to Germany and then got completely wiped out by Intel. The American government was going to allow Intel to kill AMD because AMD had moved almost completely off shore. Part of the reason AMD was saved was because it moved back home. Intel then made the agreement which kept AMD with the X86 license.
Intel will soon have 90% market share.
It WILL attack the tablet and phone markets.
Get in now or miss a huge ride up.
Dunno. Otellini said Intel was already in the "power consumption envelope" with the top five selling smart phones and was best of class in the all the performance metrics.
If so, Intel has a competitive phone at 32nm and it would just get better at 22 and 14nm...
'I don't think ARM did themselves any good when they said that Intel would be a niche player in the computer business. They have awakened the sleeping giant. Well, he wasn't actually asleep, he was just distracted. He no longer is.'
I thought it was pretty brash and amusing too ;-).
'ARM is in danger and their only protection is state-of-the-art fabrication which they don't have and aren't going to have for quite some time.'
No, they also have the protection of their inherently lower power RISC architecture which should always allow them a very low power base in which to live. Atom is a good architecture for getting x86 down to a sub 2W level with the ipc of a Pentium 4 but Intel will have to really redouble its efforts and go much further in performance/power to make a real dent on the entrenched smartphone incumbent, ARM, in the future. In the meanwhile it has to get its main architecture's power halved to see ARM off at the notebook/ultrabook pass. 22nm Haswell is the one to look for in that regard.
"Fair enough just as long as you are aware things are going to get worse before they get better."
Intel has the very great luxury of approaching the smart phone market at its leisure. So, even if what you are saying is true, and I don't think any worsening will even be noticed, in the long run everything will work out in Intel's favor.
The smart phone business is incidental to Intel's success. It's essentially a byproduct and an add-on. You might even think of it as gravy. It isn't going to effect the meat and potatoes of Intel's business.
Still Intel's approach is an aggressive one that seems to be ramping up day by day. I would hate to be in a business that Intel has targeted.
I don't think ARM did themselves any good when they said that Intel would be a niche player in the computer business. They have awakened the sleeping giant. Well, he wasn't actually asleep, he was just distracted. He no longer is.
ARM is in danger and their only protection is state-of-the-art fabrication which they don't have and aren't going to have for quite some time.
I don't see any way that ARM can stop Intel from carving out a major portion of the smart phone business. If it takes a while, then it takes a while. Intel has time, money and fabrication on its side...
Fair enough just as long as you are aware things are going to get worse before they get better. There is going to be a new Atom micro-architecture at 22nm so that is something to look forward to as well as the trigate process.
Phone vendors should primarily emphasize Medfield's software advantages if they want it to sell well like the ability to run x86 code like Windows 7, Office and PC games. Make it Windows/Android dual-boot and it will sell well in basically a market all on its own quite apart from ARM phones.
Dude, it doesn't matter. Intel will just keep the fabrication cycle ("every eight quarters") up until they are the industry leader in all categories.
You keep telling me where things are. I keep telling you where they are going.
ARMs fabrication is coasting to a stop. Intel's is ramping up.
It's doesn't take someone smarter than a 5th grader to see where all this is going. Even Wall Street is starting to figure it out...
I have already figured it out, at 28nm-32nm ARM A15 and QCOM Snapdragon Krait will surpass 32nm Atom for pure delivered performance, a first, (by any metric of clockspeed, ipc, number of cores etc) as well as maintaining ARM's performance/power and performance/price advantages.
If anyone is having a crisis it is Intel and its low power micro-architecture ;-). Apart from running legacy x86 and 64-bit code you can put a fork in 32nm Atom, it's already done and DOA. Intel will have to do a lot lot better at 22nm, removing the legacy FSB and maybe adding some out of order processing as well as going to quad-core look like sheer minimums to me.
"Ultimately all this fabrication talk is just grandstanding hand and arm waving without discussing the actual designs that will be competing against each other which show that ARM designs are remaining very competitive despite being built on larger process sizes."
Yeah, building 5 billion fabs is grandstanding. LOL
You just keep clinging to the idea that ARM doesn't need state-of-the-art fabrication to remain competitive.
Intel's projected earnings growth for Q4 is 17 percent while ARMs is zero. The differential between the stock prices is closing.
Someone is on the right path here and someone is on the side track. I'll let you figure it out...
No, ultimately it comes down to resource utilization... whether that be at the manufacturing or end-user level. ARM has proven to be a worthy low power contender. Technological advances will determine whether that advantage holds prominence in the future. Low cost/high yield manufacturing, industry acceptance, ease of support, and content are far more weighty factors
'Intel's fabrication will prevail. The only question is how long it will take.'
This advantage has to be actually demonstrated in the designs at the lower processes though. The facts are that all Intel has shown are incremental improvements in both clock speed and low power while ARM has shown staggering improvements in clockspeed, ipc, multi-core with new architectures going to lower process sizes and this does not seem to be stopping any time soon.
Samsung have gone from 1.2 GHz dual-issue A9 at 45nm to 2 GHz triple-issue A15 at 32nm. What Intel did going from 45nm to 32nm in comparison was only increase Atom clockspeed from 1.86 GHz to 2.13 GHz ,albeit at lower power.
Ultimately all this fabrication talk is just grandstanding hand and arm waving without discussing the actual designs that will be competing against each other which show that ARM designs are remaining very competitive despite being built on larger process sizes.