When the Intel story becomes obvious, you will have missed it.
"Nice fantasy but there is frankly no chance of Intel gaining a majority marketshare with ~$100 Atom phone chips. It lacks the performance/power/price to be taken seriously. Even Intel desktop/notebook chips have both dropped below $100 asp now. Your whole supposition is one big wet dream unsupported by any known evidence."
Your argument is a red herring.
It doesn't matter what the price is. This is why:
1.) We know the smart phone market is profitable. Lousy ASPs and margins but huge volumes. It all works out. 2.) We know that Intel's manufacturing is the best in the world. 3.) We know that Intel's fabrication cycle is going to eliminate all of ARMs advantages. 4.) We know that Intel is hugely successful in almost every market that it targets. It has now targeted smart phones.
Intel will carve out a significant or predominant share of business in mobility. It's going to start this year and be obvious by 2013. In the meantime the Cloud, servers and datacenters will keep Intel ramping up and the money flowing in.
You argument is nothing but a distraction from the major dynamics in play...
2.) We know that Intel's manufacturing is the best in the world. 3.) We know that Intel's fabrication cycle is going to eliminate all of ARMs advantages. -----
No. Intel's manufacturing is the best in the world at HIGH PERFORMANCE. Most of the fabs have better low power processes than Intel, and some of them will increase their lead over Intel in 2012.
From one of your posts:
----- Ivy Bridge was designed primarily to try and reduce power consumption, while boosting integrated graphics performance. From what we can tell they’ve accomplished both. Power savings average out to around 19% less than the Sandy Bridge equivalents, with TDP dropping from 95 watts to around 77 watts at the same performance levels. -----
Given that we have both a node shrink and tri-gate with Ivy-bridge, Intel still only gets a 19% reduction in power consumption (*). We'll have to wait till 2013 to see Atom at 22nm. As a side, the foundries are getting that kind of reduction on the *same* process node using other design tweaks.
* Not a fair comparison as the GPU's have increased in size, and larger cashes.