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Intel Corporation Message Board

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  • goldenseth@ymail.com goldenseth Dec 10, 2011 10:57 AM Flag

    Intel pump part 2.

    @amdmonkey72: You make some really strong and persuasive arguments and thank you for the data points. However, this is nothing new with Intel,they have always had this opportunity before them as the industry has evolved and the product mix has grown and improved. Yes it is true that they will continue to grow in the fast developing cloud and mobile space, but are we to assume that this will be a revenue driver. Sure they will get a share of the market as most research shows, but I can't see them gaining more than the plethora of competitors out there that can easily develope, deliver, and successfully design a comparable if not equal quality product as Intels. Intel has made a point of growing through acquisition over the last 2 years as it sees the market changing and it lags the developing landscape. I'm not saying this is a bad thing, but it surely causes me to be concerned about the internal understanding and drive of the management team. History has proven that Intel has consistently been behind the 8 ball when it comes to developement,but yes it always catches up and usually surpasses the competition; but the share prices has always paid the price, no? I'm really interested in understanding IF some of these statements could be true and may support the poor stock performance over the last decade. Why is the business cycle going to change in such a dramatic way? Why now? They have always been the 800 pound gorilla, they have always been the leader and still the institutional investment communtiy calls it "dead money". Yes it has outperformed recently and yes the upcoming quarter should be even better, but what about the the subsequent quarters as China slows, India continues to restrict trade, and Brazil slows as it has been. Forget about Europe all together. I am an Intel buy side researcher for my firm and I think Intel will grow just like many here, BUT anything above $35 I can't see in any way nor can 95% of the anylsts out there. Not saying they are all right, not for a second. But I would like to know how it gets there now given the fact that we can all see the good and bad and yet it has sputterd for 10+ years. Thank you kindly.

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    • "I am an Intel buy side researcher for my firm and I think Intel will grow just like many here, BUT anything above $35 I can't see in any way nor can 95% of the anylsts out there. Not saying they are all right, not for a second. But I would like to know how it gets there now given the fact that we can all see the good and bad and yet it has sputterd for 10+ years. Thank you kindly."

      ***

      I have a hard time understanding how someone with your limited analysis skills keeps a job. It's like you say - you are just like the 95 percent of analysts that have been dead wrong for two years and still don't get it.

      It's not about the last ten years. If you can't tell the difference between now and ten years ago, then you don't get out much. Or at all. Otherwise you would know about:

      1.) The Cloud and big data. Cloud traffic is ramping up at a 66 percent a year rate and this is going to continue for at least 5 to 10 years. Intel will ramp as long as the Cloud does.
      2.) The arrival of the "Internet of Things (IoT)". Connecting things (devices, cars, signs, vending machiness, cameras, doorknobs, appliances, HVAC with sensors, WiFi and radio frequency tags) instead of people is going to add an whole new monstrous level to the internet. Intel will be one of the primary beneficiaries.
      3.) The processor/gps/video/connectivity dynamic is moving into all aspects of our society.
      4.) Video growth is just starting to explode. Another level of resolution above 1080p is just starting to roll out. This will drive traffic through the roof and many, many more servers will be required.
      5.) Mobility and connectivity are going to expand rapidly into emerging economies due to rising incomes and lower PC prices. Everyone is going to get connected with video and mobility.

      We are in the midst of a revolution in computing and connectivity. I don't understand how you and the analysts can be so blind to obvious trends.

      Only Intel has the big fabrication necessary to capitalize on all these trends. It means that they will be adding market share. And the ISPI (Intel Smart Phone Invasion) is just starting.

      Throw your analysis based on ten year old history in the trash and start over. It's not worth spit...

      PS. When you write, hit the return key every once in a while for goodness sake. That one long paragraph makes it look like you've never used a computer before.

    • "it surely causes me to be concerned about the internal understanding and drive of the management team."

      Consistent record revenues & profit...
      and you're concerned ??

      Forward thinking by getting even more aggressive with their fabs...

      "History has proven that Intel has consistently been behind the 8 ball when it comes to developement,but yes it always catches up and usually surpasses the competition; but the share prices has always paid the price, no? I'm really interested in understanding IF some of these statements could be true and may support the poor stock performance over the last decade."

      When what INtel is doing is working so well, it's hard to open the view and focus on other

      "they have always been the leader and still the institutional investment communtiy calls it "dead money". Yes it has outperformed recently and yes the upcoming quarter should be even better, but what about the the subsequent quarters as China slows, India continues to restrict trade, and Brazil slows as it has been. Forget about Europe all together."

      YOu answered you own question

      "I am an Intel buy side researcher for my firm and I think Intel will grow just like many here, BUT anything above $35 I can't see in any way nor can 95% of the anylsts out there. Not saying they are all right, not for a second. But I would like to know how it gets there now given the fact that we can all see the good and bad and yet it has sputterd for 10+ years. "

      by continued growth...
      and continued execution...
      by no means is that a guarantee
      INtel has its failures like all companies
      and you're investing in their road map that
      years from now they predicted today what the
      market will watn...

    • We simply disagree.

      Good luck.

      A few factual errors in your mindset I did see.


      You say "competitors can easily produce the chips to go into servers." What competitors? AMD and Intel together make over 90% of the CPUs that go into servers and Intel has 80% of that 90%. If it is so easy, why are they letting Intel make so so much money in server chip sales?

      You said, "History has proven that Intel has consistently been behind the 8 ball when it comes to development."

      Intel created the X 86CPU and along with Microsoft helped create the PC market. It did not follow any company. It then attacked the server area and took majority share there as well.

      Last time I looked, Intel was growing its net profits and this is even before the attack it soon will make on the Tablet and phone markets.

      You seem to be under the idea that any idiot fabrication company can make top quality server chips in huge volume. You are mistaken.

      You seem to think that Intel has a history of losing fight in the CPU area to competitors. Not one yet has beaten Intel in a one on one fight.

      The roads are filled with companies that tried to compete in making CPUs against Intel and likely ARMH will become one more.

      You really sound like an Intel short. Good for you.

      I will remember you well when Intel hits 400 in 2012.

      • 3 Replies to amdmonkey72
      • goldenseth@ymail.com goldenseth Dec 11, 2011 8:20 AM Flag

        Not a short at all my friend, in fact, my research firm has a buy recommendation on Intel with a price Target at $32 a share, instituted just last week. I'm simply trying to play devil's advocate here to see how an intelligent person such as yourself makes inferences into data points (no sarcasm). But understand that in your reply you answered the question as I thought you would. Nothing has changed historyically, right? As you say they lead, develope, and are the big boy on the block. Always have been. Your not backing up your argument for a price north of my target of $32 a share with any new arguments that change investor sentiment toward Intel. That is what I'm looking for here. Everybody sees the potential in the data, easy, but what changes the mindset of the big institutional players in such a way that gets the stock to see your price range?

      • "The roads are filled with companies that tried to compete in making CPUs against Intel"

        Very True !!!
        Microsoft SW has been a cash cow on x86
        No other company CPU ISA had that cash cow
        Windows ported to Alpha, but it was one company and no SW ran on it.
        It had NO CHANCE before it began...

        "likely ARMH will become one more"

        The difference this time around is the ARM ISA is not just one company competing against x86... but numerous(and growing) companies jumping on the ARM ISA.

        The fallacy on INtel vs ARM is that it's not a zero sum game !!!!
        INtel growing x86 doesn't mean ARM won't grow as well...

        How many years did it take for x86 to grow into the giant it is today ??
        The point is ARM ISA is just starting its growth into the performance market...
        and true high-performance ARM CPUs won't even hit the street till 2013..

      • I meant of course 40 in 2012

        later

    • Great post! However I would like to add that many analysts completely ignore Intel’s recent success with SSD chips. According to SSD booster boy from website http://www.storagesearch.com/ssd-top10.html Intel is ranked # 20 in the field of 300+ companies that are competing for the SSD market that he estimates to be between 50 – 100 billion in 2020. Latest inroads by Intel/Micron in SSD market and expectation to see 800GB drives sometime in the middle of 2012 (according to http://tech2.in.com/news/internal-drives/intel-800gb-ssds-to-hit-markets-by-2012-end/248442) will significantly increase Intel’s revenues. In 3 -5 years at the most we will find 5-10 players and I am sure Intel will be among leaders of that group. If one adds Intel’s enormous manufacturing capacity and grossly underestimated manufacturing leadership, I think Intel bright future for at least next 3-5 years is assured (regardless economic cycles).

    • Okay I do have to say that I got a big laugh out of the way you used the analysts to support your argument ("nor can 95% of the anylsts out there") and then immediately through them under the bus ("Not saying they are all right, not for a second").

      Now that was funny...

 
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