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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • maximum_probability maximum_probability Dec 14, 2011 8:00 PM Flag

    Buy signal forming

    It is very likely over 70% possible that the low is already in place and we turn up here. Notice that if this is true we are at a higher low than last time and this may prove good sign going forward. The true colors will be seen now. If the low is in place as i think and due to the fact we have had nice volume past 3 days we may be in fact positioning for a breakout within 1 month.


    Shorting jan 22.5s or even 24s here (puts) or even going long a few jan 22.5s calls is a good idea. Certainly ok for shares to buy here and even leaps 2014 say 25s.

    If afraid maybe only buy stock or even shorting puts even feb ones strike 23 at 1.1 or even safer feb 22 at 0.75.

    I mean if you are scared of the market nothing wrong with getting paid 0.75 to force yourself to buy in feb intel at 22. What a deal actually. Entry at 21.25 possibly during a period that the real rally begins in 2012.

    I am not expecting 22 or less in feb 2012. But if afraid thats a nice way to go.

    I think 26 is very possible actually in january or even earlier.

    Only good news can now come out of the HD mess story. Now that the impact is realized it can only get better and of course easily prove irrelevant to the intel uptrend.

    So i am gradually getting very optimistic on near term intel action here. It may not be easy going because the momentum has been questioned lately but when people realize it was all a plan to steal their shares over a messy but not material to the intel story of 2012 issue the momentum will be back in place.

    This is why selling puts here helps, even if wrong on a buy signal it cant certainly get real ugly further without providing you a massive value buy opportunity if say some joke like 22 or 21 came. By forcing yourself to remain defensive and get paid with shorting out of the money puts on nasty declines you are practically immune to their manipulations and your stress when forced to buy is always exerted at perfect value points with massive upside and limited downside. That is the advantage of waiting to sell puts below -1.5sd and even better at -2sd and worse. Not only you make money even if wrong on direction a bit but even when it fails badly you end up invested right when others are in panic liquidating. Thats how you win in a tough market with a value stock that gets little respect.

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    • From p11 of that pdf Fab capacity has always exceeded demand for every year except the exceptional Y2K which never the less still resulted in all time highs for most tech stocks !

      Case proven and closed, anything else is just subjective hot air and opinion.

    • "I already gave you the only objective part of that rant pdf, capacity has always exceeded demand for every year except the exceptional Y2K. The rest is just guesswork and supposition on their part."

      ***

      Classifying it as a rant is just your way of getting out of responding. There is nothing about the presentation that gives the appearance of a rant.

      You have nothing other than your opinion on the capacity verses demand issue. It's just guesswork and supposition on your part.

      So, we can just conclude that you have no rebuttal...

    • I already gave you the only objective part of that rant pdf, capacity has always exceeded demand for every year except the exceptional Y2K. The rest is just guesswork and supposition on their part.

    • "No it was 20 pages of strawman history mixed up with scare-mongering. The only slide that mattered was on page 11 and guess what, capacity exceeds loadings quite easily apart from around the year 2000. Their obsession that spending may not be accelerating at the trend rate matches your obsession about ARM's phantom fabrication 'problems'."

      ***

      Let's see something objective then in rebuttal rather than just your opinion. Everyone who disagrees with you is obsessed and/or delusional. I can see you saying that about me but it's a pretty harsh thing to say about the UK boys. I guess it's a lot easier to say that than it is to offer some documentation of your positions.

      You're obviously frustrated. But that's normal where you don't like someones conclusions but don't have anything of substance to refute them with...

    • 'These guys post of 20 pages of analysis and research'

      No it was 20 pages of strawman history mixed up with scare-mongering. The only slide that mattered was on page 11 and guess what, capacity exceeds loadings quite easily apart from around the year 2000. Their obsession that spending may not be accelerating at the trend rate matches your obsession about ARM's phantom fabrication 'problems'.

    • "I think 26 is very possible actually in january or even earlier."

      ***

      I agree. I see a new 52-week high prior to the end of January.

      Keys:

      CES 2012
      Earnings
      Deferred revenue from 2011 flowing into 2012
      Romley server refresh
      Ivy Bridge/Ultrabooks
      Windows 8
      Re-stocking from current incredibly low inventory levels
      Additional AMD business
      Additional ARM business as their capacity won't meet the demand
      And the ISPI (Intel Smart Phone Invasion)!!!

 
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