Don't worry about Kevin, he's the king of posting "the obvious". Like when someone posts spam and the spam thread makes it's way to the bottom of the board, he'll reply "spam" and send the thread all the way back to the top of the board. Kev's not the sharpest tool in the box.
In this case, I "fat fingered" the message and appreciated the opportunity to correct it. I just need bigger keyboard keys. I going to buy a keyboard with only the correct keys on it.
Paul Otellini believes that the forecasts are conservative. Paul is not aggressive. The analysts think he is but they do not know what Paul knows about product plans and health.
It may be the traditional way, but it seems to me that 14nm fab has started much earlier in the 22nm cycle than 22nm started in the 32nm cycle.
It took a flood in Thailand which wiped out the HDD supply to take INTC Q4/2011 $300mil below the range that he set 3 months earlier.
IMO, if things work close to plan, Q1/2010 will be a blowout.
The Kaufman Brothers is a rather interesting company. I like their URL "kbro". They have a sense of humor.
"Founded in 1995, Kaufman Bros. is the country’s largest minority owned & operated investment banking and advisory firm focused on Technology, Media, Telecom (TMT), Green Technology and Healthcare."
They have been a supporter of Intel and downgraded Intel to HOLD from BUY for THREE reasons.
1. lack of margin leverage - the MULTIPLIER that converts REVENUE into EARNINGS is unlikely to expand more than it is so revenue increases will not translate into profits as easily.
2. aggressive 2012 revenue guidance - it will be HARD to beat what is viewed as an OPTIMISTIC guidance by Intel and therefore more risk priced into the stock.
3. valuation - Intel is getting close or exceeds the target they set for Intel.
Part of the reason that Intel has done so well has been because of the downturn in the netbook volumes. The ATOM CPU carried lower margins, so when a $1 of Atom revenue disappeared, the amount of profit was smaller.
Remember, the cost of the CAPEX will increase next year too. The capex depreciation will flow down to the bottom line and will increase cost and will put a drag on the bottom line. Analysts do not believe that Intel will be able to overcome these negatives.