Was everyone in agreemente with the Intel 40% forecast? Nope. I think there were a number who thought the number was high.
Do you think that Digitimes got their forecast from Intel? Nope. Digitimes has a source at one or more of the Asian vendors.
Upon careful reading of the article ....
The Digitimes 15-20% number came from their "sources" who are telling them the Ivy Bridge intro date.
Do you think that Intel would tell Digitimes the intro date? Nope.
"By the end of 2012, ultrabooks are expected to account for 15-20% of total consumer notebook shipments with the proportion to rise to 40% in 2013 and surpass 50% by the end of 2013, the sources noted."
"First-tier notebook brand vendors have been aggressively competing for available capacity from Intel, according to sources from notebook players."
The part of the quote that is most interesting is the one about the fight over available capacity. When Intel introduces Ivy Bridge, the demand for other systems will drop. If Intel is unable to supply Ivy Bridge CPU, it will stall sales.
It will be interesting to see how they schedule the intro in relation to earnings conference call.
Intel is a master at the manner in which it releases new processors in order to maximize margins and profits. This is not hit or miss. It's a well-orchestrated and well thought out plan. By controlling the release of specific processors they guide the market where they want it to go. No one does it better...