Same team! Same Team!
I know, but you know the market mob - an uneducated bunch of idots who follow the media's every cue - They report a story on chip sales and call it "disapointing" and BOOM. Tough-actin'-Tinactin, we have a sell-off.
Looking at the overall change in chip sales is totally worthless. One has to examine the change in each sector.
Even looking at January is a waste of time. That was then and this is now. We are coming up out of the trough.
But don't expect the ninnies on Wall Street to understand it. They have been clueless, are currently clueless and will be clueless into the future...
Today's almost 2% decline can be attributed to the SIA report stating chip sales were down 2.7% in January. I'll let y'all speculate why that was, and point out despite the (somewhat) negative news, the stock has found support at the $26.50ish level, and has not been able to break it for 5 weeks now.
This is a strong sign of institutional buying at this level. As with all stocks, there is risk to the downside, but with this technical formation that risk can be considered subdued. We just need the market moving news to officially break out (sadly I thought it should have been last week, but with the DOW transports moving down, and oil terrorizing the market, the collective community is looking for any reason to pull back). I'm skeptical that tomorrows news will be the catalyst. We may need to wait till late '12.
We should keep in mind:
The chip sector has bottomed and is moving up. Bump for Intel.
The US economy is improving. Bump for Intel.
Addition of Lava, Orange and ZTE merit a higher P/E. Bump for Intel.
Intel prolly sandbagged Q1 a bit. Bump for Intel.
Romley will definitely help Q1. Bump for Intel.
Q1 should be fine and guidance should be good for Q2. I don't think there is any short-term opportunity for shorts. I don't think they can hit that window. It's small and closing...
In the recent analyst meeting, CFO Stacy Smith clearly indicated that he expects that Q1 will be below-seasonal and the rest of the year above-seasonal.
Short-termers would want to exit as the price is pushed down a bit. But overall, Intel has been executing very well across servers, notebooks/Ultrabooks, Tablets, Smartphones and its embedded networking and communication segments. I expect Intel to start bouncing back up over the next 4 to 8 weeks.
After the Jan run up to $26.90, INTC has dropped down several times an bounced off the $26.50 area. Intel will track the market but has been relatively strong: buy back, earnings, announcements, ....
As of last night the technicals were here:
(As you can see at the moment it is well below the currect support levels.)
Yr. High 27.5
Yr. Low 19.16
MO Chg.(%) 1.6
Trend Line Resistance N/A
Trend Line Support 24.74
Resistance Range 27.14-27.3
Support Range 26.71-26.84
SELL STOP 25.85
MA Price % Slope
10 Day 26.94 100.0 UP
21 Day 26.82 100.0 UP
50 Day 26.02 103.0 UP
200 Day 23.32 115.0 UP
Ave Volume(00) 385237
MO Chg.(%) -30.5
U/D Ratio 1.6
U/D Slope UP
On Balance Volume BL
Positive OBV BL
Negative OBV BL
Money Flow(MF) 55
MF Slope DOWN
MACD ST BR
MACD LT BR
STO(Fast %K) 55
STO(Slow %K) 53
50-Day R.S. 1.03
Wilder's RSI 37
Stock is a Buy.
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicates a Bearish Trend.
Chart pattern indicates a Weak Upward Trend.
Relative Strength is Bullish.
Up/Down volume pattern indicates that the stock is under Accumulation.
The 50 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
The 200 day Moving Average is rising which is Bullish.
Look for Support at 24.74