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Intel Corporation Message Board

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  • theblueredmonk theblueredmonk Mar 14, 2012 6:55 PM Flag

    One giant threat to Intel

    Thanks man!
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    :)

    Large server farms use Microsoft Server, not Linux. The demand for ARM servers is weak, which you admit. Companies want larger processors with multithreads. Ask anybody familiar with servers and they will talk to you about Intel's Romley more than they will ever mention ARM.
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    No. Most server farms are Linux based (Google, Facebook etc). There is zero demand for ARM servers (in the context of your comment) as they don't exist. As someone who is familiar with servers, I am excited about Romley but I am also interested in the ARM server concept (as are HP, Dell etc).

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    I don't care how you spin it, there should have been a 28nm ARM processor in the iPad. There isn't.
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    Why should it be 28nm?

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    Then an Intel sales rep comes along and shows you a prototype of a smartphone that costs less than $200.
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    The BOM (Bill Of Materials) for the Intel reference design will be very similar to ARM based ones of a similar spec (screen, SoC cost, baseband, flash etc). If anything, the Intel reference will be more expensive due to the 3 chips involved (app processor, baseband, wifi) and the initial small manufacturing runs. However, it's likely that Intel will be making a larger margin on the whole phone than the sum of Intel's components.

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    The gold old days of ARM ended last year. Most of the companies are too small and fragmented to take on Intel, with the exception of Qualcom.
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    Samsung, TI, STMicroelectronics, Broadcom?

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    • ltisteve@verizon.net ltisteve Mar 14, 2012 7:30 PM Flag

      >>No. Most server farms are Linux based (Google, Facebook etc). There is zero demand for ARM servers (in the context of your comment) as they don't exist. As someone who is familiar with servers, I am excited about Romley but I am also interested in the ARM server concept (as are HP, Dell etc).

      From the author's POV the ARM based servers will be a disruptive force that will greatly impact sales of Intel based servers.


      >I don't care how you spin it, there should have been a 28nm ARM processor in the iPad. There isn't.
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      Why should it be 28nm?


      Because 3 years later, with a staff of 1000 people working at Apple on CPU's you are still hitting the market with a 1Ghz processor still at 45nm. In that same period of time Intel went from the original Core series, to Sandy Bridge to Ivy Bridge. By today's standards the processor in the latest iPad is not impressive. At the very least they could have scaled down to 28nm.

      >>>>The BOM (Bill Of Materials) for the Intel reference design will be very similar to ARM based ones of a similar spec (screen, SoC cost, baseband, flash etc). If anything, the Intel reference will be more expensive due to the 3 chips involved (app processor, baseband, wifi) and the initial small manufacturing runs. However, it's likely that Intel will be making a larger margin on the whole phone than the sum of Intel's components.

      You forgot in BOM the cost of labor for engineering design. And you forgot the middlemen margins that you have to pay to HTC and other handset manufactures. When you cut out these two factors from the bill, it goes down.

      >>>The gold old days of ARM ended last year. Most of the companies are too small and fragmented to take on Intel, with the exception of Qualcom.
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      Samsung, TI, STMicroelectronics, Broadcom?

      Samsung is another large one. TI STMicro and Broadcom? Going up against Intel? Really? They can afford to go toe to toe with Intel and keep up the the pace of fab development?

      The race over the next five years won't be about impressive specs and vaporware. That impresses potential investors. It will be about compelling products out in the market not about talk of next generation processors. Intel will be setting the pace, not ARM.

      Those who said Intel would never have a processor in a smartphone are now saying it's two years behind. My question is, what will they be saying two years from now?

      • 2 Replies to ltisteve
      • >Those who said Intel would never have a processor in a smartphone are now saying it's two years behind. My question is, what will they be saying two years from now?


        as you can see from the stock price and variations of lately , INTC is at an inflection point. The powers that tried to keep it down are about to lose the grip, if they haven't lost it already.

        The reasoning that goes around is just plain ridiculous, even for the standards of a public internet board.

        Medfield put all the doubters to rest. Period. But the Goldman Sachs and the Morgan Stanleys, the Romits and the Summits or whatevers, will not stop that easily.

        Problem for the Shahs is less and less are buying the vitriolic propaganda. I told Wally I see 30s by May and I stick with the estimate. You can only delay the inevitable.

        GLT you.

      • From the author's POV the ARM based servers will be a disruptive force that will greatly impact sales of Intel based servers.
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        No doubt. If (and it's a big if) these servers ever get to market. Even then, they are only targeting a subset of Intel's market.
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        At the very least they could have scaled down to 28nm.
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        That's not a reason...

        Clearly if Apple wanted to goto 32/28nm but was unable to because design issues (at the fab or otherwise) then that's a problem. There are valid reasons to keep the whole A5 family on the same 45nm node.

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        You forgot in BOM the cost of labor for engineering design. And you forgot the middlemen margins that you have to pay to HTC and other handset manufactures. When you cut out these two factors from the bill, it goes down.
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        Remember that other chip-sets also provide reference designs and there are plenty of cheap design shops in China that supply various carriers with cheap designs. You are overstating the cost (to the carrier) of these type of phones. The real advantage to the carrier of the Intel phone is Intel's branding and co-marketing.

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        Samsung is another large one. TI STMicro and Broadcom? Going up against Intel? Really? They can afford to go toe to toe with Intel and keep up the the pace of fab development?

        The race over the next five years won't be about impressive specs and vaporware. That impresses potential investors. It will be about compelling products out in the market not about talk of next generation processors. Intel will be setting the pace, not ARM.

        Those who said Intel would never have a processor in a smartphone are now saying it's two years behind. My question is, what will they be saying two years from now?
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        TI is a larger company than QCOM (by sales) and STMicro has it's own fabs (albeit on the higher geometries).

        At the moment we have vaporware from Intel (as yet, no shipping smart phone) and vague road maps for 22nm and 14nm. On the ARM side we solid road maps to 20nm (A15@32/28, A15+A7@32/28, 64bit@20nm). Yes, all dependent on the fabs, but the designs are there.

    • "The gold old days of ARM ended last year."

      ...it hasn't begun till ARM64

      • 1 Reply to getanid61
      • >...it hasn't begun till ARM64

        last time you told me to hold my breath till Krait. I almost died for nothing :)

        not trying to start a war of words but don't you think that if there was anything that special in CPU design we would have know it by now?

        most variations (wide versus narrow, deep versus shallow ppln, many registers for push/pop of function calls, fixed variable length instructions) all these things have been researched and investigated in the 80s, at most early 90s. Perhaps even in the 70s but I was not in front of a computer back then.

        In other words, most research about microprocessor designs has been done to the best of my knowledge. Krait was another flavor of the usual ingredients. That is why I teased you about it. Same here. What do you really think the Arm64 will bring on the table that nodoby knows ? what is the secret sauce ?

        At this point in time and feel free to point me to links proving otherwise. There is not much innovative design that can be done.

        The only differentiating factor at the moment is process manufacturing. And INTC has and will have the lead because they have the big R&D budgets and will not let this go away.

        ARM started from the low power low processing market and they kept the lead for a while. The Chipzilla woke up and closed the gap. Now they will use the R&D to get ahead and widen the gap.

        What do you have in mind that can stop them?

        Friendly, not to start another fight.

 
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