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  • theblueredmonk theblueredmonk Mar 31, 2012 5:59 PM Flag

    Come ON MAN! You know Intel is going to 40.

    Now Intel. COME ON MAN--what are you smoking.
    You are pricing it as though little old ARM is gonna win this fight. That is beyond stupid because Intel already has it beat in performance with the first phone chip it made and the 2nd one comes out late this year and it will bury the Arm chips and make them into a joke in comparison to the Intel chip.

    Intel hasn't beat on performance. Intel has claimed it is on top on one *benchmark* type (Javascript) and every month that goes by 'faster' phones are entering the market...

    Given the price of a phone SoC ($20) you can run the numbers your self. How many will Intel need to sell to make any material impact to it's EPS (make up a margin number)? Intel's growth/profit in the next few years will come from servers and not from phones.

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    • Good point about EPS. It does bring up the question, why is Intel so excited about entering the low cost, low margin world of smart phones? The answer is when you are on top you want to stay on top. There is no guarantee that any large corporation with a substantial lead can stay on top. Take for example, Kodak.

      If you were a dictator for example and one day you heard about a small militia in small town gathering money, supplies, troops and weapons you handle the problem the old fashioned way. You send your military to mow them down. You know that 30 or 40 men can grow into 3000 men and force an overthrow.

      Without a doubt the small militia that has caused the greatest challenge has been ARM. RISC processors have come in and out of fashion for years. ARM has been the single most credible threat to Intel in years. The threat has been verbalized by ARMH to its investors. They plan to start off with phones and tablets then to PC's and then to servers. And all of this is happening now, ARM will be in PC's this year and servers next year.

      In a classical war model there are ways to take out the front line. You can go into head to head combat. Or you can take out their roads and bridges so that their supply line is cut. It's hard for your opponent to fight when they are out of ammo and starving.

      Intel's mission is to cut into the funding of the ARM advancement is by taking sales away. They don't care as much about making low cost low margin phone processors. What they do care about is reducing the risk of ARM making a large and credible threat on PC's and servers.

      They have done this with a tic/toc model of fab development forcing ARM into a perceived fabrication crises on newer models. Their reference smart phone designs can make it very hard for consumers to justify paying premium dollars for marginal performance improvements. And Intel will help phone companies advertise Intel CPU based phones.

      At this point it's too late for Intel to prevent TSMC from making 28nm processors or GF and Samsung 32nm processors. The problem is at these nodes the payback period is much longer than at 40/45 nodes. Cutting into sales means that they will be stuck in these nodes for an extended period of time. TSMC is playing with 20nm right now, but it's going to be many years before they can spit out 20nm processors into the market by the truckload on a daily basis.

      I know people on here get emotional at times. ARM isn't going away, they won't be put out of business by Intel. But their market advancements are about to be very much challenged. At the high end of the cutting edge part of their business model they are facing a competitor who can not only afford to take them on, but seriously impact the demand for their high end processors.

      • 3 Replies to intel_fanboy
      • Good analogy.

      • WW:

        U R sooooooooo

        Full of CRAP!

      • You said, "Good point about EPS. It does bring up the question, why is Intel so excited about entering the low cost, low margin world of smart phones? The answer is when you are on top you want to stay on top."

        Do you know how much money Apple sells in Iphones for? north of 900 dollars a piece is what.

        Just because arm chips are 20 dollars when manufactured by whoever does not mean Intel is going to sell an X86 chip in a phone for that price. What on earth are you thinking? Intel would not even think about those low prices. Intel will sell chips into phone for substantially more and with a margin of over 60%.
        You are looking at a loser clown company and the mass production of Arm based trash and comparing it to Intel X86 cutting edge technology in an X86 chip.

        You say you are an Intel fanboy but I think you are a closet Armhfanboy. ARM is roadkill soon, get over it.

        Intel will make HUGE money selling chips into phones and while you are mimicking the idiots in the investment community with your views, that does not make those views and less wrong.

        Before this phone attack by Intel is over, it will have 90% of the profits being made in selling CPUs into phones.

    • You are missing the point sir. Intel will stake a sizable claim in market share for these near-zero margin devices, but clean up all the treasure in supporting all these wonderful toys with servers.

      If ARM camp wants to get into a knock down drag off fight over cost, they should go for it. Either way, the more of these connected toys out there, the better for Intel's fortunes.

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