"Intel's executives declined to talk about the price of the chip in volume except to say that it would be 'competitive'. Analysts from Nomura Equity Research predicted that Medfield would be introduced at a price of $17 or $18."
'Intel expects total smartphone market to reach 660 million units for 2012. Intel must know enough about this market to suggest confidently that they will be a major player. That could mean above 50% of the chip market for smartphones worldwide. So about 350 million Atom chip sales for this market by 2013. This could mean a new revenue source of between $10 to $14 Billion. This may certainly be somewhat optimistic, but no one can surely say that it cannot happen.'
So in 2013 Samsung, Apple, Qualcomm units will shrink by half ? Extremely unlikely. If Intel is selling 50+ million Medfields in 2013 it will be doing well. That's about an extra billion in Atom revenue but I suspect that will double or triple again in 2014 when Silvermont ramps. The good point about Medfield is that all the 32nm Fabs can start pumping them out when the transition to 22nm Ivy Bridge is complete. It will be the present that keeps giving in the future years as it should remain competitive against the 28-32nm A15/S4 competition at high clockspeeds and no-one can make a 62 sq mm die cheaper than Intel so Intel should still make money on them even when the price is eventually under $10.
I would wait to hear it directly from Intel what they are charging. But I definitely would not listen for one second on what comes out of Nomura Securities analysts. Especially Romit Shah, who has been wrong just about every time on Intel.
... OTOH one has to wonder if Intel makes more money than just the SoC when it provides its reference design to carriers. Does it get the design actually built for the carriers in which case you would expect some manufacturing profit, e.g. like iPhone, on top. That could throw a whole new financial dimension on these Medfield sales.
Intel did not charge for the PC reference designs. But ...
If you look at the Xolo, there is a nice "Intel Inside" logo that will be on the FRONT of the phone at the bottom of the case. The Intel Inside logo will be on the outside of the phone when talking and the logo will be in your face when someone is texting, taking your picture, on the web, .... and holding the phone up. That has substantial value to Intel.
Intel will not charge for the reference design, but will probably require (through edict or pricing) for the visible Intel Inside logo to establish the brand and brand value. The reference design will enable the OEM to put a phone in the market with their name on it with little or no effort.
At least one ODM is already enabled for manufacturing. There may be some charges but I seriously doubt it. Intel wants this effort to be successful. Those who step out with Intel now will be first in line for the next reference design.