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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Oct 10, 2012 9:59 AM Flag

    Intel Is Good for 30 AND 50

    I see Intel easily moving above 30 in 2013.

    Here's why:

    Intel is going to have five 22nm plants going. Intel has high end capacity. ARM doesn't. Nvidia, Qualcomm and AMD are all crying out for high end capacity they can't get from the ARM foundries. The situation will get worse as Intel becomes the only place with available high end capacity.

    Intel will be preparing for volume production of 14nm at the end of the year. It's going to be Intel's 14nm verses ARM's 28nm. ARM is a very long way from volume 20nm production.

    This just means Intel is going to get huge traction in mobility. There is absolutely no problem with Intel's mobility strategy - it just needs a little time to develop. The recent Motorola release should be a wake-up call for ARM. Intel has drawn even. In 2013 Intel will move ahead.

    Intel's tablet solutions are going to make a significant move up. Expect both tablet and smartphone solutions to continuously step up with a frequency that ARM can't match.

    By the end of 2013 it's going to be clear to the Apple's and Qualcomm's of the world that sticking to ARM will be a huge competitive disadvantage. If they don't use Intel, then their competitors will. It's that simple.

    There are only two ARM foundries that can compete with Intel. In 2013, TSMC is going to drop to the wayside. They just don't have the money, the technology or the manufacturing prowess to keep up with Intel and Samsung. Samsung unfortunately doesn't have the technology. It will be a two-horse race with Intel significantly in the lead due to its superior fabrication.

    These factors will combine to give Intel the choice of whatever high end business it wants. ARM will be relegated to the lower-end technology and will have to cut prices to do so. ARM is going to be the new AMD by the end of 2013. This trend will accelerate each year thereafter.

    And while Intel is building traction in both tablets and smartphones, the Internet of Things (wireless devices, sensors, RF tags, ATMs, signs, vending machines, etc.) will be experiencing exponential growth. Intel is extremely well positioned for this growth and its WiFi chip development gives it a serious competitive advantage. The IoT will provide a whole new ocean of processor, server and data center revenues that don't currently exist. In 2013, this trend will become obvious.

    The current situation is temporary. The internet is not going away. The growth of video is not going away. Wireless connectivity is expanding beyond people to machines and devices. The Cloud is not going away. And Intel because of its fabrication is getting stronger every single day. Sometime during 2013, the executives at Intel will look like geniuses for expanding capacity during a chip market lull. The lull will not and cannot last. The world has an insatiable thirst for connectivity, for communication and for entertainment.

    Right now inventories are bare-bottom. As soon as the market starts to recover a bit the need to rebuild inventories will accelerate processor revenues. Only Intel can afford to continue building state-of-the-art capacity at the same rate no matter the temporary economic dips. When the market comes back, the advantage will be clear. TSMC is being punished now for underestimating the high-end market and not building enough capacity. Intel will never make that mistake.

    These factors will combine to push Intel into the 30 to 40 range in 2013. Look for the Intel LTE smartphone push into the US as just one of the catalysts. Look for a conversion of a major ARM customer to Intel in 2013 as another.

    In 2013 the dam is going to break and Intel will be the only boat to be lifted...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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