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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Nov 7, 2012 11:02 AM Flag

    Wall St. May Not Cheer, but Obama’s Been Good for Stocks

    ["Through Friday, since Mr. Obama’s inauguration — his first 1,368 days in office — the Dow Jones industrial average has gained 67.9 percent."]

    [So much for Chump Street showing the love...]

    “ARE you better off than you were four years ago?”

    Millions of voters answered no — sweeping President Jimmy Carter from office and installing the Republican Party in the White House for the next 12 years.

    In the presidential debate last Tuesday on Long Island, and through much of this campaign season, Mitt Romney has been raising a similar question. He said last week that middle-class incomes have declined since President Obama took office, while gasoline prices have risen. And much as Mr. Reagan did several decades ago, Mr. Romney suggested that Americans are worse off today than they were four years earlier.

    By some objective measures, we are worse off — although that is at least partly because a severe recession was well under way and the economy was shrinking when Mr. Obama first walked into the White House as president. Based primarily on the grim fundamental economic data, several forecasting models have been showing for months that Mr. Obama faced a very difficult road to re-election.

    Yet for the most part, he has been holding his own in the polls and the prediction markets. At the moment, he is widely considered to have an advantage in the all-important Electoral College.

    But why? Elections, of course, are not decided on economics alone. “Campaigns matter, at least a little,” said Thomas M. Holbrook, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee. “The issues and the candidates matter, at least a little.” Yet to the extent that the economy determines the election’s outcome, it’s possible that the stock market holds part of the explanation for Mr. Obama’s outsize electoral strength.

    Through Friday, since Mr. Obama’s inauguration — his first 1,368 days in office — the Dow Jones industrial average has gained 67.9 percent. That’s an extremely strong performance — the fifth best for an equivalent period among all American presidents since 1900.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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