I think Intel will bump to 25 cents but the when is the question. It probably depends on Q4 and Q1 results. They would be declaring the Q1 dividend right after CES 2013 and just before Barcelona Mobile Conference in early Feb. Then they have the May shareholder meeting. My guess would be for the May dividend if markets are stable.
Intel has historically bumped the dividend up every 2 to 4 quarters. Q2/2009 was when they payed the $1.45b EU fine and I think they skipped a dividend bump because of the cash to the fine.
The BOD typically announces the increase before they declare the dividend. They normally declare the dividends near the dates:
Jan 25th, Mar 20th, Jul 25th, Sep 20th
The BOD would then anounce their intentions about 1 month before the declarations. The "cliff" might influence their timing but don't think so.