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Trefis models $31.77.
TSM with full fabs is trading at 16.7 PE.
16.7 PE times $2 consensus Intel earnings is $33.40.
TXN trades at 19.3 PE, similar to TSM
19.3 PE times $2 consensus Intel earnings is $39.60.
Your $30 to $40 valuation seems reasonable. Of course, I did not think Intel would go below $25 so what do I know.