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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • intelonly_please intelonly_please Dec 7, 2012 6:03 AM Flag

    Maravian and Alexander, if you get time

    Thoughts?

    Lucian ArmasuThursday, December 6 2012

    Doesn’t sound exactly like big.Little to me. ARM’s low-power and high-performance cores are on the same SoC/chip. This just sounds like they will use both Atom and Xeon chips in a server rack or something. I doubt it will be as efficient switching between them.

    Anyways, the problem for Intel is that they are very reluctant to even promote Atom for micro-servers, and it shows from how they talk about it. They have a conflict of interest, because they’d rather sell the much more profitable “bigger” chips.

    The reason why this is a problem for Intel is because ARM has absolutely no problem trying to sell ARM chips for servers. In fact they have all the incentive in the world to do it, while Intel has the least incentive to do it. As Clayton Christensen puts it, Intel will be “happy to concede the low-end, non-profitable (for them) market to their disruptive competitors”.

    This is why Intel will ultimately lose all markets to ARM (could take a decade or more, though). Because ARM thrives on extremely cheap cores, while for Intel it’s absolutely VITAL for the company’s long term survivability to be able to sell high-margin chips, because that’s how their company is built.

    As ARM chips get ever more powerful and “good enough” for most devices (that includes laptops, desktops, in the coming years), that means Intel will need to compete with $20 chips, instead of $200 chips with ARM. Look at their IVB 17W laptop chips right now. They are like $250 a piece right now. That’s absolutely unsustainable for Intel in the long-term. ARM is very close to reaching that performance level (only ~3x behind), and their chips will be an order of magnitude cheaper.

    Intel simply can’t survive in that environment – not in the consumer market at least. They’ll probably manage to survive as a company for a decade or more in supercomputers and whatnot, but it’s only a matter of time before ARM chips get them there, too. In fact Nvidia’s Project Boulder is already oriented towards super-computers, too.

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    • BRCM CEO in times (yesterday)
      “Moore’s Law is going through an interesting phase,” said McGregor. “We (fabless community) use to have improvement in cost per transistor at every node, and at 28 nm it’s coming down, but in 20 or 14 nm it may even come up and that may be a shock for everyone."

      Why do you think TSMC and Samsung are trying to match Intel's EUV investment?
      Foundry wafr price are going up exponentially - the days of cheap 45nm ARM silicon are a blast from the past - analyst problem is there are completely decoupled from what I call manufacturing reality

    • This is the typical #$%$ and rhetorical coming from the media

      Do you really think that as arm designs get more and more complex, it will cost $20 to make?

      Do you really think that as arm designs get more and more complex, that they will still have the power consumption advantage?

      Do you think arm can compete with Intel in designing high performance CPUs? IBM couldn't even compete with Intel and Intel has a 20 year lead. You hear arm chips coming out with major performance improvement but remember, performance improvements gets harder and harder with every new iteration.

      On the manufacturing side, TSMC and GF are not even manufacturing tri-gate chips yet, while intel is into their second generation tri-gate platform.

      Remember also that Intel designs, manufacture their own chips. They also have all the components (LTE, GPU etc.) for a mobile SoC. So they do not have to license from anyone. qaulcomm, nvidia and apple still have to license from arm and get manufacturing done from TSMC or GF. Do you think arm's license will go down in the future? do you think that as TSMC and GF move to tri-gate technologies, that it will cost less for qaulcomm and nvidia ? Look at the phones coming out now, they are priced at $700! not cheap.

      Further more, do you think it is easy to get into the server market? Which corporation in the right mind would switch to an untested arm server with lower performance and minimum power/cost advantage and then have to update all their software to run on them and risk that there may be bugs in them.

    • I am not familiar with Lucian Armasu. He seems to be a Romanian blogger and ARM advocate. I cannot find anything he has authored other than comments on articles. Lucian speaks through ARM colored glasses and has no special source of information.

      I think that people have underestimated the power optimization that Intel has incorporated into their chips and especially Haswell. Intel may be guilty of missing the dramatic shift in low power that ARM enabled, but they are not guilty of ignoring it. My source indicates that Paul ordered a Haswell redesign to chop power consumption. We will find out more in 5 weeks at CES2013.

      I doubt that there will be a $20 ARM server chip. This has the same problem that the BIG.little has. It takes too much silicon.
      I think that many will skip the microserver hardware and implement virtual machine instances on a Xeon server. You can run any OS on a VM which is more flexible and cheaper per user.

      There is not any credible argument that indicates that either ARM or Intel will disappear.

    • "Thoughts"
      If armh is so geat you wouldn't be shilling it on the INTC financial chat booard.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • 'Anyways, the problem for Intel is that they are very reluctant to even promote Atom for micro-servers, and it shows from how they talk about it. They have a conflict of interest, because they’d rather sell the much more profitable “bigger” chips. '

      #$%$, Otellini himself talked extensively about it both at the Earnings and Bernstein Calls.

      'This is why Intel will ultimately lose all markets to ARM (could take a decade or more, though). '

      ROFL. There is less than a 1% chance of that happening ... in about a hundred years at current rate of progress if you start from ARM's creation in the 1980s. Looks like someone is trying to find new suckers as ARMH has started deflating back to its real $10 value.

      'Because ARM thrives on extremely cheap cores, while for Intel it’s absolutely VITAL for the company’s long term survivability to be able to sell high-margin chips, because that’s how their company is built.'

      Not exactly vital, it could aways fall back to being a foundry if a miracle actually happened and nobody wanted x86 processors. High margins are determined by product desirability and efficient manufacturability something Intel has been very good at ever since ARM slinked off to the cheap sockets in the 1990s with its tail between it legs.

      'As ARM chips get ever more powerful and “good enough” for most devices (that includes laptops, desktops, in the coming years), that means Intel will need to compete with $20 chips, instead of $200 chips with ARM. Look at their IVB 17W laptop chips right now. They are like $250 a piece right now. That’s absolutely unsustainable for Intel in the long-term. ARM is very close to reaching that performance level (only ~3x behind), and their chips will be an order of magnitude cheaper. '

      Absolute #$%$ ! There is a Celeron 867 in a $200 chromebook which is much faster than the A15 in the $250 chromebook and it didn't drop mainstream Core prices by one dollar ! Who is outpricing whom ?!
      Statements like the ones above are made by idiots who have not observed the PC industry in action with competitors like AMD who have already tried and failed with the cheaper good enough fallacy to entice customers.

      'Intel simply can’t survive in that environment – not in the consumer market at least. They’ll probably manage to survive as a company for a decade or more in supercomputers and whatnot, but it’s only a matter of time before ARM chips get them there, too. In fact Nvidia’s Project Boulder is already oriented towards super-computers, too.'

      Keep dreaming ARMH groupies as Intel easily successfully defends its PC legacy base from this lightweight competitor while taking increasing tablet/phone marketshare from ARM.

    • From the q3 conference call......

      Jim Covello - Goldman Sachs
      So my follow-up question stands specific to the Data Center Group, some of the ARM based server players are arguing that they can now address a significant part of the workload from the Google’s and the Amazon’s and Facebook’s data centers. Is that some competitive dynamic that you're seeing in that area or do you think that ARM still isn't competitive in that realm?

      Paul Otellini - President & CEO

      They need to add features sets like 64-bits and ECC and RAS features to be particularly in those environments to be considered, so that maybe a roadmap planning opportunity that they are pushing but the products that are being shipped today certainly don't have those feature sets.

      You can look at some of the workloads, things like Hadoop, Jim that would be conducive to let me say in a ray of micro servers, and those can easily be run on Atom; we've got our second generation of the Atom micro server chips out now, the first one is on 32-nanometers. Now we’re now sampling the 22-nanometer one and what we’ve decided that we are just going to push Atom as hard as possible in this space and have it be a better offering for our customers than having to switch all their software and worry about all the reliability features.

 
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