1) APPL/INTC deal....this would be a game changer, no doubt about it. Foundry alone would add $2 billion/yr to revenue. If Apple decides to go with Intel's chips for their iPhone and iPad, we are looking at an additional $5 billion/year. Forget Goldman sucks et al #$%$ about it killing margins; that's pure #$%$. The additional revenue will drive up EPS which is what will drive up the stock price. If deal goes thru, we are looking at $1.00 EPS/quarter or $4/year!
2) CSCO foundry deal....roughly $1-$2billion/yr in revenue
3) Bay Trail SoC (22nm) for smart phones (and small tablets) make early entry in 2013. The Bay Trail SoC would be quad core and will blow away the competition.
4) Smart phones design wins with Motorola and other phone makers for U.S. market. This will surely happen in 2013, only question is how many phones and whether they will have Bay Trail inside or only the z2580.
5) Android tablets and Chromebook design wins. We know Intel will make Windows 8 tablets, but if they can also get some Android tablets into the market, Intel will be more diversified.
6) Hardware manufacturers bombard market with sexy new convertibles and detachables PCs. Imagine a Lenovo Yoga or a Dell XPS 12 convertible as thin and light as the Acer Aspire 7. Or Detachables PCs that have the tablet half as thin as the iPad. Those are the kind of products we need in the market. I think we will see these soon when hardware makers get their hands on the 7W Ivy Bridge parts and upcoming ULV Haswell parts. And with the 22nm SoC process, they should be able to produce tablets as thin as iPads.
7) PC refresh picks up steam. With AMD most likely exiting x86 market, Intel will have market to itself! Stacy Smith believes there will be a pent-up refresh coming. There are people out there still using 5-year-old laptops with windows XP. When windows 8 becomes more mainstream (what's the alternative?) and more thin sexy convertibles and detachables come into the market, corporations and consumers alike will be making the upgrade...especially with the fact that Windows 8 is a touch-based OS.
You make some good points, and obviously, INTC has to get it's phone and tablet chips out.
You mentioned the PC refresh. One thing that is not mentioned (or maybe it is, but I miss it) is that in 2011, I believe, there were tax incentives to buy pc's. Like many recent programs it robbed sales from the future (2012). The media bashes pc's as being down 21%, and they were, but only in the US. The 2012 fall off in non-US pc's was far less than the US. And, of course, Europe and Asia were having tough economic times in 2012. So, long story short, Stacy Smith is probably right talking about better times for the pc area. The media likes to bash though.