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Intel Corporation Message Board

  • wallisweaver wallisweaver Dec 27, 2012 7:15 PM Flag

    The Precarious Nature of ARM's Existing Situation

    One cannot overestimate the precarious nature of ARMs existing situation.

    1.) ARM foundries are still unable to produce enough 28nm capacity to satisfy demand.
    2.) Opinions of 20nm planar technology have now reached a consensus level that the technology is noncompetitive with FinFET and therefore doesn't have the economics to be viable.
    3.) The ARM foundries are therefore left with two equally ugly options. Stick with a doable move to 20nm planar leading to production of a inferior product that leaves Intel a huge opening into the mobile world. Or attempt the almost impossible two process level jump to 14/16nm FinFET that would take three years even if successful.
    4.) The other option which appears to be the most reckless due to the extreme cost is to do both at the same time. This appears to be the approach that has been settled upon.

    There is almost no chance that this is going to end well for ARM. The stakes are immense and no ARM roadmap appears to have a good chance of success. Only two foundries remain players at this point in time due to the huge costs of building new fabrication plants: Samsung and TSMC. It appears that this will soon be just Samsung. With Samsung competing with its own customers, this leaves no viable ARM foundry choice for companies such as Apple.

    ARM has reached the fabrication tipping point and Intel's 2013 roapmap provides them little opportunity to avoid the abyss...

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • show some guts then Waldo and short it. Your continued pumping of INTC sure hasn't panned out very well given it's still down for the year and still below those lofty heights of 24.00 way back in 2010..

    • 1.) ARM foundries are still unable to produce enough 28nm capacity to satisfy demand.
      Not true. They have been operating at over 80% for a while now.
      2.) Opinions of 20nm planar technology have now reached a consensus level that the technology is noncompetitive with FinFET and therefore doesn't have the economics to be viable.
      Not true. There is the usual power/performance benefit from scaling down. Leakage is an issue that they are working out.
      3.) The ARM foundries are therefore left with two equally ugly options. Stick with a doable move to 20nm planar leading to production of a inferior product that leaves Intel a huge opening into the mobile world. Or attempt the almost impossible two process level jump to 14/16nm FinFET that would take three years even if successful.
      They are going to 20 nm first then to 14nm just like everyone else including Intel.
      4.) The other option which appears to be the most reckless due to the extreme cost is to do both at the same time. This appears to be the approach that has been settled upon.
      All foundries including Intel work on processes simultaneously. This is because it takes too long to develop a process to work on them serially.

      • 3 Replies to khitchdee
      • "1.) ARM foundries are still unable to produce enough 28nm capacity to satisfy demand.
        Not true. They have been operating at over 80% for a while now.

        [There's a ton of articles stating that TSMC won't meet demand until some time into 2013, if then. But why read anything when you can just make stuff up? But here's the deal. TSMC needs to be at volume production on 20nm by the middle of 2013 or its game over. They will be lucky to be at full volume production on 28nm. TSMC couldn't even produce a decent ramp on planar 28nm. You want to see what a ramp is supposed to look like review Intel's ramp on 22nm FinFET. TSMC has no chance of reaching volume production on 20nm in 2013.]

        2.) Opinions of 20nm planar technology have now reached a consensus level that the technology is noncompetitive with FinFET and therefore doesn't have the economics to be viable.
        Not true. There is the usual power/performance benefit from scaling down. Leakage is an issue that they are working out.

        [Go ahead post up some articles touting the economics of 20nm planar. There aren't any. Put up or shut up.]

        3.) The ARM foundries are therefore left with two equally ugly options. Stick with a doable move to 20nm planar leading to production of a inferior product that leaves Intel a huge opening into the mobile world. Or attempt the almost impossible two process level jump to 14/16nm FinFET that would take three years even if successful.
        They are going to 20 nm first then to 14nm just like everyone else including Intel.

        [Just like everyone else? Don't make me laugh. It's Intel and Intel only. There isn't anyone else. ARM is two years out on 20nm and four or more on 14nm FinFET. ]

        4.) The other option which appears to be the most reckless due to the extreme cost is to do both at the same time. This appears to be the approach that has been settled upon.
        All foundries including Intel work on processes simultaneously. This is because it takes too long to develop a process to work on them serially."

        [Really? So, we can expect to see all foundries produce 5nm at the same time? Don't be ridiculous. Each process builds on the preceding one. That's why it is utterly impossible for ARM to jump two process levels. They wouldn't even attempt it except 20nm is such a total economic loser.]

        [If ARM doesn't have a better shill than you to throw into the mix, then their PR is as bad as their fabrication....]

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1) Not true. They have been operating at over 80% for a while now.
        [Show me a report that says this...the reports I've read have shown otherwise ...google Nvidia warns 28nm supply problems continue, and Apple CPU demand might be too much for TSMC to handle]
        2) Not true. There is the usual power/performance benefit from scaling down. Leakage is an issue that they are working out.
        [you are wrong again...google Nvidia deeply unhappy with TSMC, claims 20nm essentially worthless]
        3) They are going to 20 nm first then to 14nm just like everyone else including Intel
        [wrong...intel has already made jump to 22nm trigate/finFet and is in full production...now going to 14nm trigate/finFet]
        4) All foundries including Intel work on processes simultaneously. This is because it takes too long to develop a process to work on them serially
        [wrong...see 3]

      • gregory.lynn@rocketmail.com gregory.lynn Dec 27, 2012 8:18 PM Flag

        Khitchdee gets paid double to pump ARMH on the Intel board, 2 cents a post. By the time they grow into their valuation he will be able to afford 1 share!

    • ...........and anybody that thinks Apple won't just toss them into the trash like spoiled potatoes is either delusional or named Getanid. haha

 
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