What We Know Now: 2013 Will Be the Year of the Full-Blown ARM Fabrication Crisis
These things have become clear in recent weeks:
[I've done a lot of reading on ARM planar 20nm recently and there is nothing but bad news for ARM. There is also a terrible trend in ARM ramps. There is an excellent graph and I will try to post up the link to it. It shows that ARM foundry revenues are constantly shrinking with each new process as a percentage of total revenues in each of the first three years after introduction. Intel as we know is not suffering from this ramp problem as evidenced by how rapidly Intel has ramped 22nm production as a percentage of revenue. So, 20nm planar is shaping up as a disaster and 14/16nm is so far out that it can be totally discounted for at least a couple of years. And each and every new ARM generation is going to take longer and cost more to ramp. This will be the year that ARM will no longer be able to hide these facts. ]
1.) ARMs fabrication roadmap is in serious trouble. Enough that they are seriously contemplating an almost impossible jump of two process levels to 14/16nm FinFET due to the marginal returns that would result from a complex and expensive move to planar 20nm.
2.) Intel can move into major foundry work while maintaining reasonable margins and dramatically improving the bottom line and EPS.
3.) Intel can move into major mobility market share while maintaining reasonable margins and dramatically improving the bottom line and EPS.
4.) Intel has a dramatic roapmap for 2013 and we will be hearing a lot more details at CES in January and at the World Mobile Congress in February.
5.) Intel will be making major tablet and smartphone inroads in 2013 with LTE smartphones coming to the US early in the year.
6.) Intel's superior technology,fabrication, manufacturing and capacity will lead to some major industry-changing deals in 2013.
7.) Intel is preparing to take the lead in the power efficiency race in 2013 while continuing its significant lead in performance.
8.) Intel is going to have some major surprises and developments for us in 2013, particularly in the area of entertainment. "Intel’s relationship with Delivery Agent adds to the growing offerings of premium HD content from Intel Insider-enabled services, including Best Buy CinemaNow*, Hungama Digital Media*and WB* Shop." Delivery Agent is the leader in multi-channel commerce for the
largest global media companies and an Intel Capital portfolio company.
9.) 2013 will be a watershed year for Intel in terms of traction for its mobility strategic plan.
10.) The fiscal cliff market adjustment represents a great opening to build or add to an Intel position. There has never been a better time to invest in Intel.